USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report

This article was originally posted at 3:04 p.m. CDT on Monday, June 26. It was last updated with comments from a farmer at 10:46 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 27.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. corn and soybean conditions declined for the third week in a row during the week ended Sunday, June 25, according to USDA NASS' weekly Crop Progress report released Monday.

A system that moved across the country over the weekend brought some good rainfall coverage, but most areas saw near- or below-normal amounts for the week. And some key dry areas were missed in Kansas, Missouri and much of Illinois. Despite the good rain coverage, it appears to have come too late to have an impact on crop conditions for last week, said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again in the forecast for this week, but again are likely to be hit or miss, Baranick said.

CORN

-- Crop progress: 4% of corn was silking, equal to both last year and the five-year average.

-- Crop condition: Nationally, corn was rated 50% good to excellent, down another 5 percentage points from 55% the previous week and below last year's rating at this time of 67%. The current rating is the lowest for the crop at this time of year since 1988, said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. Double-digit declines were seen in corn ratings in Missouri, Illinois and Minnesota last week, he noted.

SOYBEANS

-- Crop progress: 96% of soybeans were emerged as of Sunday, 7 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 89%. Ten percent of soybeans were blooming, 4 percentage points ahead of last year and 1 point ahead of the five-year average of 9%.

-- Crop condition: Soybeans were rated 51% good to excellent as of Sunday, down 3 percentage points from 54% last week and below last year's rating at this time of 65%. As with corn, the current rating is the lowest for the crop since 1988, Hultman said. "Missouri's soybean rating lost 12 percentage points, and the three I states lost 8 to 10 points each," he said.

WINTER WHEAT

-- Crop development: 97% of winter wheat was headed nationwide as of Sunday, up 3 percentage points from the previous week and equal to the five-year average.

-- Harvest progress: 24% of the crop was harvested as of Sunday, up 9 points from the previous week but 9 points behind the five-year average pace of 33%. "Oklahoma is 55% harvested versus its average of 79%, and Kansas is 21% complete versus its average of 38%," noted DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini.

-- Crop condition: Nationwide, winter wheat was rated 40% good to excellent, up 2 percentage points from 38% the previous week and ahead of last year's rating at this time of 30% good to excellent.

SPRING WHEAT

-- Crop progress: 31% of spring wheat was headed as of Sunday, 6 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 25%.

-- Crop condition: USDA said 50% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of June 25, down 1 percentage point from last week's 51%, and 9 points below the five-year average of 59%. "Four of the six states followed by NASS showed lower ratings on the week with double-digit declines in the Dakotas," said Mantini. "North Dakota's crop is rated 49% good to excellent, down 6 points, while only 69% of the crop in Minnesota is rated good to excellent."

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for much of the U.S. again this week, but as during this past weekend, they will likely hit some areas and miss others, Baranick said. And another short burst of heat in the Southern Plains will likely add more stress to some already dry areas, he said.

"The system that went through over the weekend continues to spin across the Great Lakes early this week with some showers for the eastern Corn Belt but will miss Illinois and most of Wisconsin," Baranick said. "The pattern stays active, though, as there are several disturbances in the West that will make their way through the region this week. Again, it looks like scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms, and models do not handle thunderstorms well, especially in these types of situations. So, whether an area gets rain or not is mostly in a wait-and-see mode. But chances will occur each day depending on where you are in the region. Unfortunately for some, this is not a good situation to be in: Dry conditions will continue, and crop conditions may decline further. For others, the rain will come at an opportune time as corn is nearing pollination.

"The other concern is heat. Early this week around Texas, temperatures will be up near or over the 100-degree-Farhenheit mark. That will expand into Missouri and nearby Kansas and southern Illinois Wednesday or Thursday. The heat doesn't last all that long, as a front coming from one of the Corn Belt disturbances will push through this weekend and keep those temperatures down toward Texas again. But it will be stressful for those drier areas, which are numerous down there."

To view weekly crop progress reports issued by National Ag Statistics Service offices in individual states, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov/…. Look for the U.S. map in the "Find Data and Reports by" section and choose the state you wish to view in the drop-down menu. Then look for that state's "Crop Progress & Condition" report.

FARMER COMMENTS

Dave Opperman, who farms in central Illinois near Lincoln, was one of those who missed out on the showers this past weekend.

"I'm beginning to feel like the last girl to be asked at the dance!" Opperman said via email Monday evening. "I feel like the market thinks all is well and, yes, after last weekend, I suppose a few farmers lucked out and got rain, BUT we are bone dry! I've had maybe 1/2 inch of rain since I finished planting corn in mid-May! Corn is short and will be attempting to tassel within the next 2 weeks. This is worse than 2012 at this point in time. Watching this crop going into a slow death is very painful. This is a disaster in the making!!!!!!!!!"

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Editor's Note: How are your crops looking? Are they better, worse or right on track with USDA NASS' observations? Send us your comments, and we'll include them in next week's Crop Progress report story. You can email comments to Anthony.greder@dtn.com or direct message him on Twitter @AGrederDTN.

National Crop Progress Summary
	This	Last	Last	5-Year
	Week	Week	Year	Avg.
Corn Silking	4	NA	4	4
Soybeans Emerged	96	92	90	89
Soybeans Blooming	10	NA	6	9
Cotton Planted	95	89	99	98
Cotton Squaring	28	19	31	31
Cotton Setting Bolls	5	3	8	7
Winter Wheat Headed	97	94	94	97
Winter Wheat Harvested	24	15	39	33
Spring Wheat Headed	31	10	7	25
Sorghum Planted	85	73	89	92
Sorghum Headed	16	15	18	19
Barley Headed	21	7	17	26
Oats Headed	70	58	52	62
Rice Headed	11	6	9	8

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National Crop Condition Summary
(VP=Very Poor; P=Poor; F=Fair; G=Good; E=Excellent)
	This Week						Last Week						Last Year
	VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E		VP	P	F	G	E
Corn	4	11	35	42	8		3	9	33	47	8		2	6	25	55	12
Soybeans	3	11	35	45	6		3	9	34	47	7		2	6	27	55	10
Winter Wheat	11	17	32	33	7		11	18	33	32	6		24	19	27	25	5
Spring Wheat	3	9	38	48	2		2	10	37	48	3		3	5	33	53	6
Sorghum	2	6	35	50	7		2	5	33	53	7		7	11	39	40	3
Oats	7	10	39	40	4		7	9	39	42	3		12	10	20	51	7
Rice	1	3	26	56	14		-	1	29	56	14		-	2	25	56	17
Cotton	6	12	33	43	6		7	13	33	41	6		12	18	33	34	3

Anthony Greder can be reached at anthony.greder@dtn.com

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