Kub's Den

In some parts of the Corn Belt during these last days of May 2023, where row crops have been planted since the beginning of the month and condition ratings have started the season showing luscious potential (81% of corn rated good or excellent in Ohio; 77% in Iowa), the promise of each individual field already looks confidently assured. But here in the eastern Dakotas, where growing degree days have lagged during a relatively cool spring, we are surrounded by fields where the nascent plants are barely peeking above the soil, or where the seed itself may not have emerged yet. Still, we know the same promise is there.

It's a promise of future energy on an enormous, mind-blowing scale. Across all 160 acres of a standard 'quarter-section' field (half a mile by half a mile), with 30,000 seeds planted in each acre, each has the potential to create -- through a sort of natural magic involving nothing but soil and sunlight and water -- some of the most versatile and economically powerful substance ever known to man. Grain can be turned into groceries (either directly or in the better-tasting forms of beef, milk, pork, and chicken); but grain can also become the fuel that powers commuter cars, semi-trucks, or airplanes. And, grain can be processed into other substances, like bioplastics used in anything from pop bottles to clothing.

At the most basic level, all of life's activities require energy and all energy can be measured in calories. One "food calorie" is the amount of heat energy necessary to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1 degree Celsius. Each pound of No. 2 yellow field corn contains 1,566 calories; so, an entire acre of corn can produce 15.9 million food calories. The USDA is projecting the average U.S. corn field will produce 181.5 bushels of corn per acre in 2023, which is 10,164 pounds of corn per acre at 56 pounds per bushel. An entire quarter section (160 acres) of corn can produce 2.5 billion food calories.

A person taking a 20-minute walk might use up 75 calories, which is about the same amount of energy that's in one medium-sized banana ... or about one-seventh of an ear of No. 2 yellow field corn. So, the energy from one field, growing 4.8 million individual ears of corn, could keep a person walking for 1,292 years straight.

Or, if all those calories could be converted perfectly into fuel for automobiles, then we might look at the 15.9 million calories produced per acre of corn and say it's equivalent to 513 gallons of gasoline, because each gallon of gasoline contains 31,000 calories (when measured in kilocalories or food calories). Therefore, the 2.5 billion calories of energy from an entire quarter section of corn is equivalent to the energy from 82,151 gallons of gasoline -- enough to drive my little SUV 1,807,330 miles. But trust me when I say the ol' rust-bucket would never be able to make it that far.

What else could all that energy do? In terms of electrical energy, the average U.S. home requires 30 kilowatt-hours to run per day, equivalent of 25,813 food calories per day. So, the energy production of an average U.S. cornfield (2.5 billion calories) is equivalent to enough energy to power a home for 270 years.

Of course, even when using these interchangeable calorie units there isn't any perfect apples-to-apples comparison of a field full of corn. The actual production of ethanol, for instance, takes place with various costs and energy losses and externalities that are different from the production of petroleum gasoline or electrical power (or the production of bananas, for that matter). Still, I find it inspiring to think of just how much potential for energy is out there growing in the sunshine, or still reaching up through the soil. It's a promise of future energy, and an indication of the power of one field.

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Comments above are for educational purposes only and are not meant as specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of grain or grain futures or options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone.

Elaine Kub, CFA is the author of "Mastering the Grain Markets: How Profits Are Really Made" and can be reached at masteringthegrainmarkets@gmail.com or on Twitter @elainekub.

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