DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central U.S. and a ridge in the Pacific. An arm of the polar vortex is spinning up near Hudson Bay. The ridge will continue in the Pacific, forcing pieces of energy that go around it to dive into the middle of North America for the next couple of weeks, building the polar vortex across the continent.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The pattern with a ridge in the Pacific and a trough across the U.S. will continue. Toward the end of the month, a ridge will start to develop in the Southeast, pushing back the troughs to the western half of the continent going into February.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be well below normal in the northwestern half of the country with above-normal temperatures in the southeastern half. A front will continue to be pushed southeast through the country by a couple of systems next week, which should push the colder air deeper through the country. Meanwhile, some modest warming will be possible in the Southwest late next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...88 AT WESLACO, TX

LOW TUE...21 BELOW ZERO AT ANTERO RESERVOIR, CO

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT TUESDAY...HOUSTON, TX 4.05 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Central U.S. and a ridge in the Pacific. An arm of the polar vortex is spinning up near Hudson Bay. The ridge will continue in the Pacific, forcing pieces of energy that go around it to dive in to the middle of North America for the next couple of weeks, building the polar vortex across the continent. Toward the end of the month, a ridge will start to develop in the Southeast, pushing back the troughs to the western half of the continent going into February.

The U.S. and European models agree on the overall pattern, but have differences in how they treat each piece of energy moving through the country.

I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be well below normal in the northwestern half of the country with above normal temperatures in the southeastern half. A front will continue to be pushed southeast through the country by a couple of systems next week, which should push the colder air deeper through the country. Meanwhile, some modest warming will be possible in the Southwest late next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): A clipper system will bring a strong cold front through the region on Friday that will bring in arctic air for the end of January and the beginning of February, leading to increased stress for livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A system produced heavy, widespread precipitation across the southern half of the region Tuesday, including a band of moderate to heavy snow across northern Texas and Oklahoma. This was the best precipitation this region has seen in a long time. A front will move into the region this coming weekend and may provide some additional showers, but temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front, inducing stress for livestock and threatening winterkill on any exposed wheat.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A stronger system is producing a band of moderate to heavy snow for southeastern areas Wednesday. A clipper will bring a strong cold front into the region Friday and Saturday that will send temperatures well below normal. The front will be pushed southward a couple of times by additional systems over the weekend and next week. Each will bring precipitation with them and push the colder air deeper through the region.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Recent precipitation has been able to keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River from falling into dangerously low territory. The watershed has been active and will stay active with several rounds of precipitation moving through heading into February, which should keep river levels up for a while yet.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness is taking a hold of the southern states yet again until another front moves through this weekend. Models disagree, but could linger that front in the region next week, which would be helpful for filling corn and soybeans. Widespread precipitation elsewhere continues to favor later-planted soybeans, but is delaying harvest a little. If the wetness continues too long, it may push back the safrinha corn planting schedule, which would not be an ideal scenario for the crop.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of fronts will move through over the next several days, which will bring through more precipitation for developing soybeans and corn, adding to good totals from last week. Early-planted corn which is filling will only be stabilized by the showers. Should amounts disappoint, the region would likely have to wait until the middle of next week for the next chance of rain. If the forecasts hold, stabilization of the corn and soybean crops are likely, but a stark turnaround may not occur.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue across the south for the next few days. The northern half of the continent is drier this week, but should see some showers move through this weekend into next week. Overall, winter wheat is in a favorable situation, though is vulnerable to a blast of cold air should it come with somewhat limited snow cover.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered snow, heavy south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered snow, heavy south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday, near to well below normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to well below normal Monday-Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to well below normal Monday-Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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