Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Above-normal temperatures and chances for precipitation in the U.S. and limited rain in the southern half of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MIDWEST WARM AND ACTIVE

Above-normal temperatures should be in the Midwest for the next couple of weeks. This will cause melting and potential for ice jams and flooding across northern zones. In addition, scattered rain showers are expected tonight through the weekend with a couple of disturbances moving through, being heavier along the Ohio Valley. A larger storm system is forecast to bring widespread precipitation early to mid-next week, which may include a band of heavy snow.

SOME SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A band of snow is developing across the Central Plains for Thursday and some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far southeastern Plains as well. Precipitation is not forecast to be very heavy or help with the drought situation. A larger storm system is forecast to move through early next week with more widespread precipitation. It is still being determined if anything significant will fall on the southwestern Plains, however.

VARIABLE WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will remain above normal in the Northern Plains through the weekend. Any threat to arctic cold temperatures is well off in time, though some below-normal readings will be possible early next week. A couple of systems will move through and bring periods of rain and snow for the next week. The more concerning storm is next Monday, which may bring a wide band of wintry precipitation, though models are still trying to determine exactly where this will occur.

RIVER LEVELS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI GETTING A BUMP

Warmer air is in place across the Delta and other areas of the country, which will help melt snow and bring more water through the river system. Additional periods of showers are expected through the weekend and again early next week, which will help to add to the river as well. Water levels reached a peak last week, but will be helped out by a slightly active pattern going into the new year.

ONLY LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers will continue in central and northern Brazil for at least the next two weeks, as is typical for this time of year. Soybeans remain in mostly favorable condition, though dryness across the far south is a little concerning for both corn and soybeans that are in reproductive stages. A cold front moved into the south with brief, but significant showers, but it will dry out behind it. Rio Grande do Sul and eventually Parana will dry out and some concern over crop conditions continues in these states. Some showers will move back in early next week, but if they disappoint, could produce meaningful reductions in production there.

BRIEF SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Another round of showers will move through Argentina this weekend, but it will get dry behind that front again. Showers are not coming at a consistent enough clip to reduce drought or turn around crop conditions for corn and soybeans that have been significantly harmed by heat and drought this season. Planting on both crops remains behind the normal pace as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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