DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in eastern Canada with a weak ridge spreading across most of the rest of North America and a disturbance moving into the central Rockies.

This trough will dive into the Southern Plains by Thursday and be slow to move eastward through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, another trough will move into the West this weekend and send a few pieces of energy eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to below normal in the West and Northern Plains and above normal elsewhere. Colder temperatures may spread south and east next week behind systems that move through the Plains and Midwest next week. One around the middle of next week may be stronger with widespread snows and heavy rain, but that is still to be determined.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...89 AT EVERGLADES CITY, FL AND OCHOPEE, FL

LOW TUE...25 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CT TUEDAY...BROWNSVILLE, TX 2.38 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in eastern Canada with a weak ridge spreading across most of the rest of North America and a disturbance moving into the central Rockies.

This trough will dive into the Southern Plains by Thursday and be slow to move eastward through the weekend. Another trough will move into the West this weekend and send a few pieces of energy eastward next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to below normal in the West and Northern Plains and above normal elsewhere. Colder temperatures may spread south and east next week behind systems that move through the Plains and Midwest next week. One around the middle of next week may be stronger with widespread snows and heavy rain, but that is still to be determined.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures are moderating this week and will even go above normal for a couple of days, though snowpack could keep them down a bit in North Dakota. A system will move through this weekend with some light precipitation and a return to arctic temperatures behind it.

Another system could bring heavy precipitation around the middle of next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A system will dive into the Southern Plains, producing scattered showers tonight through Saturday before moving northeast out of the region. While some good precipitation may fall in west Texas and Oklahoma, it should be lighter elsewhere in wheat country, especially where drought is the worst.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures are moderating this week. A front will move through on Thursday and Friday with some light showers, but the main system will come through Saturday and Sunday with more widespread precipitation, though mostly in the form of rain. Northwestern areas are unlikely to see any significant precipitation into early next week. A larger storm may develop in the middle of next week with more widespread precipitation.

DELTA (LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS): Recent precipitation to the north has improved water levels on the Mississippi River, but that is only temporary as the water levels will fall throughout the week. A system will bring scattered showers to the area Thursday through Saturday, which may produce some improvements or hold off the decline. If another system moves through in the middle of next week, that would also keep water levels from falling too harshly.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Scattered showers will continue in central and northern Brazil as is typical for this time of year. Southern areas saw showers over the last couple of days, but will be dry for the rest of the week. Showers could fill back in over the weekend or early next week, but would be spotty and light. Precipitation has been below normal over southern areas for the last month. Good rains earlier in the spring have set corn and soybeans in mostly good shape to start the season, but soil moisture is starting to fall across the south and concerns are growing about increasing dryness where rains are disappointing as early-planted crops are getting closer to pollinating stages.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Isolated showers moved through this weekend and hit areas that were missed last weekend. Soil moisture is still not favorable, and dryness is expected into early next week. The dryness and drought continue to be concerns until showers become more consistent.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Several systems are bringing showers to most areas of the continent this week and may continue next week while wheat is still vegetative in a lot of the continent. Overall, soil moisture is favorable or improving as winter wheat starts to go dormant over the next few weeks for all but southern locations.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue in a few bursts this week and weekend. Soil moisture is mostly good for wheat before it goes dormant over the next couple of weeks. Prospects are high for a good crop depending on how much was able to be planted this fall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/SORGHUM/COTTON): Recent heavy rains in the east have caused quality concerns for winter wheat and canola over the winter and spring but have also led to forecasts for record yields. Drier weather this week should help crops dry out for harvest, which is starting to pick up. More isolated showers are possible this weekend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Scattered showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday night-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday night-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday.

Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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