Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong storm with a changing pattern for the U.S., rain moving back into eastern Australia, and a brief return of showers for South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

TURN TO COLD FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers went through the middle of the Midwest over the weekend, with moderate to heavy rain for Missouri up through Wisconsin and northwestern Michigan and some severe weather for northern Illinois. Showers dried out as they moved eastward. A system may bring some isolated showers to northwestern areas early this week, but a stronger system will push through Thursday and Friday with strong winds and potential for heavier showers across the north and a push of colder air. Some snow will be possible in Minnesota. The colder air will last into next week.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through eastern areas of the Central and Southern Plains on Friday, skipping over western areas that are in desperate need for rain before wheat goes dormant. The region will see some isolated showers early this week, but a stronger system will develop Wednesday night. Most of the precipitation will occur north of the region, but there could be a couple of lines of stronger storms developing for eastern areas Thursday. Strong winds will develop with the system as well, which continues to dry out soils. Much colder air follows the system, with colder air lasting through most of next week. Another cold front will push through early next week with some additional showers and potential for accumulating snow. There is some limited potential for precipitation over southwestern areas, but this will likely leave this region dry, as wheat may start to go dormant in poor condition.

BLIZZARD COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, along with cold air. A low-pressure system is developing Monday, but most of the precipitation will be in Canada. A stronger low center will develop Wednesday night which will bring much more widespread and heavier precipitation through the region, with any rain turning over to snow. With strong winds developing, blizzard conditions will be likely Thursday into Friday. Very cold air will follow behind the system, lasting through next week with another reinforcing shot of cold air and some light snow.

DRIER IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers went through the Delta over the weekend which may disrupt the remaining harvest. Outside of a few isolated showers on Monday, dry weather is expected into next week. Water levels are forecast to remain largely unchanged for the next week due to some better precipitation farther north.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO BRAZIL, BRIEFLY

It was dry over the weekend for most of Brazil's growing regions outside of the northeast. Isolated showers will start to return to central areas in the middle of the week while it will take until the end of the week to get into southern areas. The showers will not last long over southern areas as another front clears out the area Sunday into Monday. If showers disappoint, soil moisture in southern areas will decline, starting to impact corn and to a lesser extent, soybeans. Showers next week may still be possible for southern areas, but unlikely. Central areas should fare better with showers continuing.

BRIEF, BUT IMPORTANT SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

It was dry in Argentina over the weekend. Isolated showers will move into the country Wednesday but will be cleared out of the country on Saturday or Sunday. A long period of dryness has had a significant effect on filling wheat as well as corn and soybean planting and establishment. Showers may still go through next week with a couple of weaker cold fronts but will likely be isolated. If showers disappoint this week, the drought will likely start to damage corn and soybeans, as well as push back planting even further.

DRIER IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers went through Russia over the weekend, favoring winter wheat development, but causing further delays for corn and sunflower harvest. Drier conditions are likely in the Black Sea region this week. Warmer air in the region will help to keep wheat active and avoiding dormancy, beneficial for root development for areas with good soil moisture.

HEAVIER RAIN THIS WEEK IN AUSTRALIA

Some isolated showers popped up over southeastern Australia over the weekend but were light. Recent heavy rainfall has caused a decrease in crop quality and flood damage. Some showers may pop up at times over the course of the week but will be spotty. A system should bring more organized rain through the eastern half of the country this coming weekend, which would be unfavorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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