USDA Reports Preview
USDA Provides October Harvest Update
With corn and soybean harvests underway and producer surveys getting better informed, USDA will provide its latest production estimates on Wednesday, Oct. 12, at 11 a.m. CDT. U.S. wheat ending stocks are also expected to fall after USDA estimated lower wheat production on September 30.
CORN
One month after estimating a 13.944-billion-bushel (bb) U.S. corn crop and 172.5 bushels per acre (bpa) yield, USDA will take another crack at it on Wednesday, Oct. 12, armed with field data from crops that are more mature than they were a month ago, and with help from producer surveys that should be a little better informed now that harvest has begun.
Taking an average of the 20 analysts Dow Jones surveyed, USDA's new estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks in 2022-23 is expected to decline from 1.219 bb in September to 1.127 bb Wednesday, still the lowest in 10 years. The corn crop estimate is expected to slip to 13.891 bb, based on a new yield of 171.9 bpa, the smallest crop in three years, if true.
The lower ending stocks estimate is largely the result of USDA finding a smaller-than-expected 1.377 bb of ending corn stocks for 2021-22 in the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report. There is a chance corn stocks could come in higher than analysts expect, as both ethanol production and corn export sales are off to a slow start in early 2022-23. Even so, lower beginning stocks in 2022-23 are likely to result in some reduction of ending corn stocks.
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For world ending corn stocks in 2022-23, Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to lower its estimate from 304.53 million metric tons (mmt) to 301.60 mmt (11.87 bb). South American estimates aren't likely to change as planting is just getting started. Brazil's crop agency, Conab, recently estimated Brazil's 2022-23 corn crop at 126.9 mmt (near 5.0 bb), and slightly higher than USDA's 126.0 mmt estimate. Ukraine will continue to get attention on the production and export estimates, last seen at 31.5 mmt and 13.0 mmt, respectively. I will also be watching for a reduction in USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks, excluding China, last seen at 97.32 mmt (3.83 bb), the second lowest in nine years.
SOYBEANS
USDA's Sept. 30 finding of 274 million bushels (mb) of U.S. soybean stocks was 34 mb higher than expected and means that USDA's estimate of U.S. ending soybeans stocks for 2022-23 will probably also be a little higher in Wednesday's report. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA will increase ending stocks from 200 mb to 240 mb, expecting the crop estimate to stay roughly unchanged at 4.379 bb with a 50.5 bpa yield. Of course, USDA may have a different opinion as there is a lot of variability in this year's crop conditions, depending on location. Demand estimates are likely to be stable this month, but there is a chance the soybean export estimate could be lowered, given current concerns about low water levels on the Mississippi River.
For world soybean stocks, Dow Jones expects USDA to slightly increase its estimate from 98.92 in September to 99.60 mmt (3.66 bb). Brazil's Conab recently estimated its 2022-23 soybean crop at 152.4 mmt or 5.60 bb, higher than USDA's early estimate of 149.0 mmt. Early planting conditions have been favorable in Brazil so far, but the forecast is expected to turn drier after mid-October. Argentina has had a dry start to the year so far, but it is so early in the season, USDA is apt to keep its production estimate for Argentina at 51.0 mmt (1.87 bb). Overall, South American estimates for 2022-23 are too early in the season to take too seriously.
WHEAT
Wheat is often overlooked in WASDE reports, but after USDA cut its U.S. production estimate from 1.783 bb to 1.650 bb in the Sept. 30 Small Grains Summary, the new estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks in Wednesday's report is likely to be the lowest in 15 years. Dow Jones' survey is looking for ending stocks to drop from 610 mb in September to 563 mb, but an even lower number is possible. Demand estimates may shrink in proportion to the drop in supplies but should be stable overall.
With lower U.S. production, world ending wheat stocks are expected to come down a little, but there is still room for Russia's production to be increased from USDA's current estimate of 91.0 mmt (3.34 bb). The more important totals from the Black Sea in 2022-23, however, will be actual exports and the latest increase in Russian attacks suggests Russia may not extend its agreement to allow Ukrainian grain shipments. Of course, USDA can't predict Russia's next move, but it will be interesting to see USDA's view of exports. Analysts in Dow Jones' survey expect USDA to lower the estimate of world wheat stocks from 268.57 mmt to 267.1 mmt (9.81 bb). I'll be watching for a reduction in world ending wheat stocks apart from China, last estimated at 124.21 mmt (4.56 bb), the lowest in 14 years.
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Join us at 12:30 p.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates and what they mean for crop prices. We are also glad to field your questions. For those busy at 12:30 p.m., there will be a link provided to replay the webinar at your convenience. Register here for Wednesday's October WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. PRODUCTION (million bushels) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2021-22 | |
| Corn | 13,891 | 14,056 | 13,766 | 13,944 | 15,115 | |
| Soybeans | 4,379 | 4,463 | 4,309 | 4,378 | 4,435 | |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2022-23 (WASDE) | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2021-22 | |
| Corn | 171.9 | 173.9 | 170.1 | 172.5 | 177.0 | |
| Soybeans | 50.5 | 51.3 | 49.8 | 50.5 | 51.4 | |
| U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2021-22 | |
| Corn | 80.8 | 80.9 | 80.5 | 80.8 | 85.4 | |
| Soybeans | 86.6 | 86.7 | 86.5 | 86.6 | 86.3 | |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 1,127 | 1,255 | 1,000 | 1,219 | ||
| Soybeans | 240 | 327 | 187 | 200 | ||
| Wheat | 563 | 615 | 477 | 610 | ||
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2021-22 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 307.7 | 314.3 | 280.3 | 312.1 | ||
| Soybeans | 90.0 | 92.3 | 88.5 | 89.7 | ||
| Wheat | 275.7 | 278.0 | 274.2 | 275.7 | ||
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2022-23 | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 301.6 | 311.0 | 280.3 | 304.5 | ||
| Soybeans | 99.6 | 103.2 | 97.5 | 98.9 | ||
| Wheat | 267.1 | 270.0 | 262.6 | 268.6 | ||
Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com
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