Commodities Market Impact Weather

Limited Showers for Finishing Crops

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat with limited shower chances for the Corn Belt and cooler conditions down in South America are the short-term weather factors driving the markets Friday.

LIMITED MIDWEST SHOWERS

In the Midwest, temperatures will be near or above normal going through next week while it will also be quite dry. A front dipping into the region through the weekend will produce some isolated showers, but many areas are likely to stay dry. Some of the drier areas in the region will continue to see stress while areas that have been wetter recently should be alright for filling corn and soybeans. Some showers may migrate north later next week ahead of the next system that should move through next weekend.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers will continue in the Central and Southern Plains with a front moving through this weekend, but showers should be isolated. Texas will likely see more periods of showers going through next week. Some drought relief is likely there, but drought will probably build elsewhere with above-normal temperatures. The next chance for more widespread showers does not come until the end of next week.

HOT AND DRY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier conditions are expected in the Northern Plains into next week while temperatures stay mostly above normal. The combination is not favorable for filling corn and soybeans. A system is set to move through either late next week or weekend with a more promising chance for widespread rainfall.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front stalled in the Delta will produce some showers through the weekend, which would be beneficial for the remaining filling soybeans and cotton, but not for harvest. Some of the areas in the north are still dealing with dryness concerns but will see at least some showers through the weekend. Models show some potential for showers next week as well. Temperatures will be much more seasonable in this region, but still on the warm side.

GOOD HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Mostly dry weather through the middle of next week should favor harvest conditions in the Canadian Prairies. A system will move through later next week with strong potential for widespread rainfall. It would be too late for crops this year, but ease some of the dryness that has been occurring lately.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Early plantings of corn in southern Brazil are finding good conditions for early establishment. Another front is stalling in southern states with more showers into next week. Cooler temperatures will be in place across the south but the risk for frosts is low. The rains should be good for immature wheat and corn planting, but a little detrimental to mature wheat.

ARGENTINA WHEAT DEALING WITH COLD

A front brought showers to Argentina's northern agricultural zones, but cold temperatures being brought in behind the front are producing more frosts. Limited rainfall and cold temperatures have been detrimental for wheat development so far this season. Another front is set to move through next week. It is not forecast to offer much precipitation but does come with an even colder shot with more widespread frosts and freezes. More developed wheat would be at risk for damage.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH BLACK SEA

A front moving through the Black Sea region is bringing temperatures down and helping to reduce stress for filling corn and sunflowers. The front is not forecast to produce much precipitation outside of some spotty areas through the weekend and dry pockets are forming in both Ukraine and western Russia ahead of winter wheat planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick