Commodities Market Impact Weather

Relatively Hot and Dry for Next Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

BOONE, Iowa (DTN) -- Heat and dryness for the Corn Belt but helpful rains in Texas are the short-term weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

LIMITED MIDWEST SHOWERS

Temperatures will be near or above normal in the Midwest going through next week while it will also be quite dry. A front dipping into the region Friday through the weekend may produce some isolated showers, but nothing widespread is forecast. Some of the drier areas in the region will continue to see stress while areas that have been wetter recently should be alright for filling corn and soybeans. Some showers may migrate north later next week ahead of the next system that should move through next weekend.

DROUGHT IMPROVING FOR TEXAS, WORSE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers will continue with a front stalled out in Texas going into next week. Some drought relief is likely there, but drought will probably build elsewhere with increasing temperatures. There will be some isolated showers that move through other parts of the Central and Southern Plains, but meaningful help is not expected. The next chance for more widespread showers does not come until the end of next week.

HOT AND DRY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier conditions are expected in the Northern Plains for the next week while temperatures will waffle but remain mostly above normal. The combination is not favorable for filling corn and soybeans. A system is set to move through either late next week or weekend with a more promising chance for widespread rainfall.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front stalled near the Gulf Coast will continue showers for southern areas of the Delta through the weekend, which would be beneficial for filling soybeans and cotton. Meanwhile, some of the areas in the north are still dealing with dryness concerns and will be rather dry for the next few days. There is some potential for showers to migrate north this weekend into next week. Temperatures will be much more seasonable in this region, but still on the warm side.

GOOD HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Mostly dry weather through the middle of next week should favor harvest conditions in the Canadian Prairies. A system will move through later next week with strong potential for widespread rainfall. It would be too late for crops this year, but ease some of the dryness that has been occurring lately.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Early plantings of corn in southern Brazil are finding good conditions for early development, shielded by the brief cold. Another front will move into southern states with more showers into next week. The rains should be good for immature wheat and corn planting, but a little detrimental to mature wheat.

ARGENTINA WHEAT STILL COLD

A front moving through Argentina on Thursday will bring showers to northern agricultural zones but cold temperatures will fill in yet again and likely produce more frosts. Limited rainfall and cold temperatures have been detrimental for wheat development so far this season.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH BLACK SEA

A front will move through the Black Sea region over the next several days, bringing temperatures down and helping to reduce stress for filling corn and sunflowers. The front is not forecast to produce much precipitation outside of some spotty areas and dry pockets are forming in both Ukraine and western Russia ahead of winter wheat planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick