Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A favorable pattern for central U.S. row crops following weekend rainfall and continued adverse conditions due to heat and drought in Europe and China are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Monday.

BENIGN MIDWEST CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for Midwest conditions to feature seasonally warm conditions and scattered light to moderate rains during the next week. This combination will favor filling row crops. Rainfall in the past seven days had a wide range from light to locally heavy; however, some of the driest western Midwest areas had heavier rain totals.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS PRECIPITATION

Southern Plains crop areas have a wide variance in precipitation chances during the next seven days. The southern sector of the region continues to be in line for heavy rain and flood potential. Recent rainfall in Texas has hit record levels. Farther north, Kansas will still be bypassed by this moisture. This implies only minor drought relief for one of the largest wheat production states in the U.S.

DRIER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains crop areas have a mostly dry forecast during the next seven days. Recent showers have improved soil moisture in eastern areas but not in the western sector of the region. Temperatures will be seasonal to above normal, adding to the drier trend.

MIXED DELTA RAIN

In the Delta, a mixed rainfall trend is indicated during the next few days. Southern sectors have moderate amounts in store with northern areas receiving lighter totals. Showers and thunderstorms may disrupt early row crop harvest along with causing some potential damage to cotton.

MORE NORTHWEST WARMTH

Dry conditions with very warm to hot weather remain in the forecast over the northwestern U.S. This pattern will favor the wheat harvest but will be stressful to other crops along with pastures, hay and livestock water supplies.

LIGHT PRAIRIES RAINFALL

Scattered mainly light showers will cover the Canadian Prairies during the next few days along with above normal temperatures. Conditions will be generally favorable for wheat and canola crops along with pastures and hay.

QUIET SOUTH AMERICA PATTERN

Brazil and Argentina crop areas have generally mild temperature conditions and light rainfall in store this week. A warming trend is indicated in Argentina during the next 10 days.

LIMITED SHOWER POTENTIAL IN EUROPE

Extreme heat and dryness have caused widespread stress to most crop areas of Europe. In addition to crop moisture loss, drought has sapped river levels in many areas. Precipitation outlooks indicate only light showers during the next week.

DRIER BLACK SEA FORECAST

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine and Russia will have a mainly warm and dry pattern during the coming week. This will favor the latter stage of wheat harvest but brings concern for moisture for filling row crops.

CHINA DROUGHT DAMAGE

Heat and drought are exhausting crop prospects in central China. Production of wheat and rice is especially at risk for lower totals than a year ago. Recent temperatures topped 114 degrees Fahrenheit. Conditions are so dry that weather modification and cloud seeding have been initiated to try to improve rainfall in the Yangtze River basin.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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