Commodities Market Impact Weather

Weekend Midwest Rain Potential

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Rain prospects for much of the Midwest and extreme heat and drought in Europe and China are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Friday.

MIDWEST WEEKEND RAIN CHANCE

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the Midwest during the coming weekend. Rainfall combines with expected seasonal temperatures to offer favorable conditions for filling row crops. Far western Midwest areas have the most questions regarding rainfall amounts; follow-up rainfall is needed even after a round of moisture during the past week.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN WATCH

Southern Plains crop areas have continued prospects for rainfall during the next seven days, mainly in the form of scattered showers. The remnants of a tropical system may linger over Texas next week and some parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma may see heavier rain amounts. Kansas does not appear to be in line for heavier precipitation, implying no drought relief for the largest wheat production state in the U.S.

DRIER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains crop areas have a drier forecast over the next seven days. Recent showers have improved soil moisture in eastern areas but not in the western sector of the region. Temperatures will be seasonal to above normal, hottest in Montana where drier conditions are still in effect.

VARIABLE DELTA RAIN

In the Delta, rainfall the next seven days looks to be variable. Southern sectors have moderate amounts in store with northern areas receiving lighter totals. Showers and thunderstorms may disrupt early row-crop harvest.

CONTINUED HOT IN NORTHWEST

Heat and dryness remain in store across the Northwest over the next week. This pattern will favor wheat harvest but will be stressful to other crops along with pastures, hay and livestock water supplies. Showers due to the southwestern U.S. monsoon may develop but will bring minimal rainfall.

FAVORABLE PRAIRIES PATTERN

Scattered light to moderate showers will cover the Canadian Prairies over the next few days along with seasonal to above normal temperatures. Conditions will be generally favorable for wheat and canola crops along with pastures and hay.

CHILLY SOUTH AMERICA PATTERN

Below- to much-below-normal temperatures continue in the forecast for central and southern Brazil through northern Argentina through the weekend. This cold pattern has the potential to bring freeze conditions to wheat areas and will be closely watched.

EXTREME HEAT IMPACT IN EUROPE

Extreme heat and dryness have caused widespread stress to most crop areas of Europe. In addition to crop moisture loss, drought has sapped river levels in the Rhine, Danube and Po systems. This low water level is unfavorable for transportation. Precipitation outlooks indicate only light showers over the next week.

VARIABLE BLACK SEA FORECAST

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine crop areas have seasonal temperatures with periods of showers for useful crop moisture in the forecast. In contrast, Russia will be drier, with favorable wheat harvest conditions but some concern for row-crop moisture.

DAMAGING CHINA HEAT WAVE

What is called the worst heat wave on record in China is damaging crops in some key central and north-central provinces. Recent temperatures topped 114 degrees Fahrenheit. Conditions are so dry weather modification and cloud seeding have been initiated to try to improve rainfall in the Yangtze River basin.

SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Australia growing regions have a favorable pattern for developing wheat. Periods of showers will cross the continent over the next week with most rain in southeast Australia.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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