Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A cold front moving through the country and heat returning to the Plains are the weather factors driving the market Monday.

MIDWEST COOLER WITH FAVORABLE RAINS

A stalled front brought showers to southern areas of the Midwest early this weekend while another started to move into the north with more showers. Heavy rain fell in a stripe from southern Minnesota to northern Illinois, including northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Only small sections of these heavier rains hit drought areas that could use more moisture for filling corn and soybeans. But the front will continue to sag south through the region early this week with more rainfall through Wednesday in areas that would benefit from some dryness. Behind the front, it will get much drier with cool temperatures going into the weekend. Western areas should warm up more later this week and drier areas there could see more stresses.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BRIEFLY COOLING

A front moved into northern areas of the region this weekend with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Heat continued south of the front. The front will gradually slide south through the region this week, bringing in more seasonable temperatures for a couple of days and scattered showers. Showers are unlikely to be widespread with limited impact on drought, and temperatures will rise again later this week and weekend, stressing crops further.

LIMITED RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A front went through the Northern Plains over the weekend with scattered showers. A couple of areas saw heavy rain, but most saw light to moderate. After a few days of more seasonable temperatures, above-normal temperatures will return by late this week and continue into next week. There may be some showers moving in with the heat. They are likely to be isolated but could be heavy. Soil moisture is starting to run thin in a lot of areas, making some of these rain chances more important for filling corn and soybeans.

FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Only a few areas of the Delta saw any rain this weekend, mostly across the south, while temperatures remained hot. A front will sag south through the region this week, offering chances for scattered showers and more seasonable temperatures. Crops in this area are more developed and have been dealing with heat stress all summer. A week of relief will not be enough to reverse prospects. More rain and seasonable temperatures are needed. Models are mixed on if showers will return next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEATING BACK UP

Heat moving back into the Pacific Northwest looks to continue for the next couple of weeks. Some monsoon showers may come up from the south at times this week, but overall, the region will be drier as well. Stress continues to mount for the end of the growing season for spring wheat while conditions are more favorable for winter wheat harvest.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES STAYING DRIER

Mostly dry weather occurred in the Canadian Prairies over the weekend. A couple of systems are moving through over the next week but will only offer light precipitation in most cases. Southwestern areas could use more precipitation, but time is running out for rain to be helpful as harvest starts up in more advanced areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

A front stalled over southern Brazil will bring scattered showers through the middle of the week, keeping soil moisture high as wheat continues to move into reproduction. The showers will get into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, which could disrupt the remaining corn harvest in these areas.

ARGENTINA WHEAT LACKING SOIL MOISTURE

Some isolated showers came to southern Argentina wheat areas over the weekend. But dry weather is forecast for this week, which continues to be unfavorable for wheat establishment and development.

HEAT BUILDING FOR THE BLACK SEA

Above-normal temperatures across the Black Sea region this weekend helped to dry soils and wheat for harvest. A front moved into northwestern areas and stalled but will wash out over the next couple of days as the heat continues to be favorable for wheat harvest. Soil moisture in the region is good overall and the heat will help to accelerate corn and sunflower filling.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE CONTINUES

Heat across much of Europe the last several weeks has caused widespread stress and damage to summer crops. An upper-level system is forming off the tail end of a cold front in eastern areas of the continent this week. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler and bring scattered showers to this part of the continent. But across the west, stress will continue for the next couple of weeks.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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