Commodities Market Impact Weather

August Hot, Dry Forecast Looming

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Thursday, markets are weighing short-term benefits of cooler temperatures and heavy rainfall in drought areas this week against an outlook for hot and dry conditions returning in August.

MIDWEST TURNING HOTTER NEXT WEEK

Two fronts are combining across the Midwest on Thursday and have brought widespread showers to the region this week, especially across the south. The combined fronts will continue to bring showers through Friday, and we could see a flare up near the Ohio River over the weekend as well. The fronts have also brought in much cooler temperatures. However, the coolness will not last long and heat is forecast to build back in next week. Showers will become much more limited as the storm track shifts north into Canada, but chances will remain throughout next week, especially north.

BRIEF RELIEF TO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Two fronts moving south through the Central and Southern Plains are combining Thursday and pushing south into Oklahoma by Friday, offering more rainfall and stress reduction to most of the region outside of Texas. Drought that has been building over the last several weeks should see some easing. But the relief will not last long as heat builds back in next week with little or no precipitation expected.

HEAT AND LIMITED RAIN NEXT WEEK IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier conditions are in place for the Northern Plains for the rest of the week. Soil moisture is starting to decline in a lot of the region, except where showers have hit more frequently. Wheat is still in good shape, but we are starting to see more stress coming to corn and soybean crops. Mild temperatures will rise this weekend and especially next week, producing more stress. Only limited showers will move through the region with the main storm track through Canada.

SHOWERS AND HEAT RELIEF COMING TO DELTA

A front will sag south into the Delta Thursday and Friday and stall, allowing for several days of beneficial showers through the weekend. Any showers would be welcome, but the heat will also relax as the front moves in, giving a brief break. However, temperatures will increase next week while showers get more isolated and a return to stressful conditions will be likely.

HOT AND DRY PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to decline in the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall. Hot and dry conditions will continue until a trough builds into the region next week. Crop conditions continue on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season, though crop conditions are mostly good. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

STORM TRACK RETURNING TO CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Canadian Prairies. While the rest of the week will be much drier, the pattern looks to get more active this weekend and next week as the storm track returns to bring several disturbances with scattered showers back through.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. A system building in Argentina will bring its front through southern areas Thursday and Friday with some scattered showers, favoring wheat. Another front may do the same late next week.

SHOWERS DRYING UP FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

A slow-developing system is bringing scattered showers to much of Argentina this week, but a cold front will carry the showers northward Thursday with dry conditions to follow. Scattered showers moving over wheat areas are helpful, but more are needed to reduce drought stress for wheat establishment. A system will bring showers to northern areas in the middle of next week but miss the primary wheat areas which are more in need.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers have been present in the Black Sea for about a week, favoring reproductive corn and sunflowers, but limiting wheat harvest. Temperatures are forecast to rise well above normal next week. That could start to dry soils out a bit more for the start of the August fill period but improve conditions for wheat harvest.

HEATWAVE IN EUROPE EXPANDING NORTH NEXT WEEK

Heat and dryness continue for the southern half of Europe. After another weak disturbance passes through the continent Friday and Saturday with scattered showers more for eastern areas, heat looks like it will build back up north yet again going into next week. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will likely enjoy more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick