Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cooler temperatures and increased rainfall for drought areas in the Southern Corn Belt but a return to the typical summertime heat and dryness are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

COOLER AND WETTER MIDWEST

Scattered showers have moved through most of the Midwest over the last few days due to a cold front pushing through the region. The front remains active across the south Tuesday and Wednesday with moderate to heavy showers possible. Another front will pass through the region Wednesday and Thursday. The fronts will bring scattered showers and they could be very helpful for some of the drier areas scattered around the region. The fronts have also brought in much cooler temperatures. However, the coolness will not last long and heat is forecast to build back in next week with a return to drier conditions expected as well.

BRIEF RELIEF TO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Two fronts moving south through the Central and Southern Plains this week will be bringing cooler temperatures to most of the region outside of Texas. Both are bringing periods of showers to drought areas. The second front will stall across the south later this week, offering stress reduction to most of the region. But it will not last long as heat builds back in next week.

COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers are moving through the Northern Plains along a cold front moving into the region Tuesday, but the region will be a bit drier for the rest of the week. Soil moisture is starting to decline in much of the region, except where showers are hitting more frequently. Wheat is still in good shape, but we are starting to see more stress coming to corn and soybean crops. Cooler temperatures will be around most of the week, but we will see temperatures increasing this weekend and especially next week, producing more stress.

SHOWERS AND HEAT RELIEF COMING TO DELTA

Isolated showers fell across southern areas of the Delta this weekend, but most areas were hot and dry, stressing soybeans and cotton. A front will sag south into the region later in the week and stall out, allowing for several days of showers going through the weekend. Any showers would be welcome, but the heat will also relax as the front moves in, giving a brief break as well. However, temperatures will increase next week while showers get more isolated and a return to stressful conditions will be likely.

HOT AND DRY PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to decline in the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently. Heat and dryness will be the theme all week long, waiting for a trough to build into the region sometime next week to bring the potential for some showers and cooler temperatures. Crop conditions continue on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest, however.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Soil moisture is mostly favorable across the Canadian Prairies. A front moving through on Monday brought some scattered showers but also much cooler temperatures, which will reduce stress for any of those drier areas. The pattern looks to get more active this weekend and next week as the storm track returns to the region.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. A system building in Argentina will bring its front through the region later this week with some scattered showers, favoring wheat.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

A slow-developing system is bringing scattered showers to much of Argentina through Thursday before the front to the system shifts north. Scattered showers moving over wheat areas will be helpful, but more are needed to reduce drought stress for wheat establishment.

FAVORABLE WEATHER IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers continued over the Black Sea region this weekend, favoring reproductive corn and sunflowers, and perhaps limiting some wheat harvest. While temperatures will increase a little this week, showers are forecast to remain in the region, maintaining mostly good conditions for corn and sunflowers.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN EUROPE

Heat continues across southern areas of Europe. Another burst of heat building north will be pushed aside by another system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday. The front will not make it very far south and heat and dryness are expected to continue for the southern half of the continent this week. After another weak disturbance passes through the continent Friday and Saturday with scattered showers more for eastern areas, heat looks like it could build back up north yet again going into next week. Heat and a lack of showers will stress some corn areas, though wheat will likely enjoy more favorable harvest conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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