Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heat Ridge is Dominant Weather Driver

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A ridge producing heat and drier conditions for much of the country and overall favorable conditions in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

LIMITED SHOWERS WITH HEAT FOR MIDWEST

Widespread showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend, favoring many areas and bringing relief to dry, drought-stressed areas, especially in central Indiana. A system will move along the Canadian border this week and the focus for showers will be over the north. More isolated showers are expected over the weekend, but heat will be present when showers are not, especially in the west, which will reduce moisture for pollinating corn and blooming and pod-setting soybeans.

HEAT AND MOISTURE STRESS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A few showers moved through the Central Plains over the weekend but so did higher temperatures. Triple-digit heat will be in the region all week. Few areas of the region have good soil moisture and the heat will stress crops and livestock and increase the need for irrigation. Some showers may move through northern areas over the weekend, but most areas will remain dry as drought and stresses continue to mount.

SEVERE STORMS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend but there were plenty of dry areas. Temperatures increased above normal as well. A system moving through Monday and Tuesday will bring chances for severe weather near the border and some strong wind gusts, but temperatures will stay near or above normal for the rest of the week. Showers will move through again this weekend but will be spottier. Soil moisture is still favorable for most of the region, though there are some dry spots showing up where showers have been missing more. Wheat is in overall good shape, but corn and soybeans are going to need those showers as temperatures stay elevated.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A few showers fell in the Delta over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. The region will likely be out of the showers after Monday, as a few more are moving through the region. With heat being widespread in the region when showers do not occur, dryness and drought will continue to be stressful for soybeans and cotton.

CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Soil moisture continues to decline in portions of the Pacific Northwest due to heat and a lack of rainfall recently, especially in Idaho. No significant showers are forecast for the next couple of weeks, putting crop conditions on more of a downward trajectory for the end of the season, especially for spring wheat.

EARLY WEEK STORM FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved across northern and eastern areas of the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but southwestern areas are in need of some more moisture. A system early this week will bring moderate to heavy rain through this portion of the region, helping to reduce or eliminate the remaining drought in the region, but could make for severe weather as well. While the storm track will continue to be through the region after this storm moves through, models only have small disturbances and scattered showers. However, most of the crop should be set up well for the remainder of the season.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL WHEAT

Favorable weather continues for both remaining corn harvest and wheat development in Brazil. More showers are expected in the south for vegetative spring wheat early this week. While showers should dry up later in the week, soil moisture is in very good shape and temperatures will be well above normal, helping wheat develop faster.

SHOWERS COMING FOR ARGENTINA WHEAT

Waves of colder temperatures and limited showers have had a significantly negative impact on winter wheat establishment in southern Argentina this winter while the window for planting has largely closed. Dry conditions continue this week as temperatures increase, stressing the dry areas. Scattered showers are forecast to occur with a system next week and are going to be helpful should the forecast pan out.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers moved through the Black Sea Region around an upper-level low over the weekend. The showers continue at times through the week but will likely be spottier after Monday. Temperatures will continue to be milder so drier areas should not feel as much stress. Temperatures will increase next week though, and showers will turn isolated or absent, which could affect corn and sunflowers as they continue to go through reproductive stages of development.

HEATWAVE ACROSS EUROPE

A few showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A ridge will bring more heat across the continent this week. While the northern edge of it will remain active with a couple of storm systems moving through, showers will be limited. Areas that get missed will see more stress developing for spring grains and corn.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick