Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drier Extended Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Mixed central U.S. rain in the next two days, more withering heat in southern crop areas, a drier outlook during the 14-day time frame, and a very warm to hot and dry forecast for western Europe are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST RAIN FORECAST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for localized moderate to heavy rain in the Midwest during the next five days. This rain is mainly indicated between Interstate 80 and Interstate 70 from Iowa and Missouri east to the Great Lakes. Moisture will be very important for pollinating corn and flowering soybeans. Areas to the north of this corridor will have lighter rainfall and seasonal temperatures with some crop benefit. Areas to the south will be hot and dry, with more stress to crops and bringing concern for possible lower yields at harvest this fall. The entire region turns cooler but drier during the 10- to 14-day time frame. The percentage of the Midwest in drought is now 15% according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That value is more than double the portion of the region in drought compared with the previous week.

ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAT

Stressful hot and dry conditions remain in effect over most of the Southern Plains. Drought damage has been noted in winter wheat yields. Less than 20% of the cotton and sorghum in Texas are rated in "good" condition, with none rated "excellent" in the USDA weekly crop condition report. More than half the region is in severe, extreme or exceptional drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The two-week outlook again features mostly hot and dry conditions, with only isolated thunderstorms and limited rainfall.

SHORT-TERM NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

Northern Plains crop areas have additional light to moderate rainfall in the five-day forecast. The balance of the two-week time frame features drier conditions and much warmer temperatures. Crop development is favored due to improved soil moisture and the oncoming warmer pattern.

SCATTERED DELTA THUNDERSTORMS

The next five days bring several chances for scattered thunderstorms to the Delta. Moisture from these storms will be useful for crops. Temperatures remain seasonally warm but will show some moderation after excessive heat during this week.

RAINY SOUTHEAST FORECAST

In the Southeast, the next seven days feature widespread shower and thunderstorm activity along with seasonal temperatures. This trend will generally be favorable for row crops and cotton after a period of stressful heat and dryness.

MIXED PRAIRIES RAIN FORECAST

Canadian Prairies crop areas have mixed rain prospects during the next seven days. Light to moderate totals are an indication for northern and eastern sectors. Meanwhile, a notably drier pattern is expected in western and southern sectors. This trend will be closely watched as crops move into their reproductive phases with increased moisture demand.

DRYNESS TO EXPAND IN EUROPE

Across Europe, western crop regions have a hot and dry 10-day forecast. This pattern will quickly take up recent rainfall that improved soil moisture. Meanwhile, central and southern regions have continued crop production concerns due to drought which formed in the spring with no significant improvement up to this point.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
Connect with Bryce: