Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heavy Snow, Severe Storms This Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active week of weather in the U.S., but not for HRW wheat, and the end of the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

HEAVY RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEST

A system started to bring showers into the Midwest on Sunday and will continue Monday. But a much larger system will bring widespread showers, potential for severe storms and heavy snow to the far northwest Tuesday through Thursday. Strong winds are also expected with the system, which may include blizzard conditions where heavy snow occurs. More showers are possible this coming weekend. Cold temperatures that occur with the systems going through next week are unfavorable for any fieldwork or planting and may cause frosty conditions for advanced winter wheat.

SOUTHERN PLAINS WHEAT MISSING OUT AGAIN

A large storm system will bring scattered showers to northern and eastern areas of the Southern Plains through Wednesday but may completely miss southwestern hard red winter wheat areas. Strong winds could also cause some wind damage and fire hazards as well. Drought continues to be a major hindrance to winter wheat while also being unfavorable for corn and soybean planting.

COLD, WET IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Several waves of showers are expected in the Pacific Northwest over the next week as a trough remains in the area. That should improve soil moisture for wheat, but cold temperatures will limit growth and could produce multiple days of hard freezes that could cause some damage to wheat and delay spring wheat planting.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, THEN COLD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend. But a significant winter storm is on track to spread moderate to heavy rain and snow across the region this week. Montana and North Dakota will see the heaviest snows and strong winds are likely to develop blizzard conditions that will impact livestock. There will be another system moving through this coming weekend that could bring more moderate to heavy snow. Cold temperatures that occur with the systems going through next week are unfavorable for any fieldwork or planting.

ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Delta in a few waves through Wednesday, including multiple rounds of severe weather. Another system will move through this coming weekend into next week with more showers. Areas that need the rainfall in the south to get out of drought will see some favorable conditions, though it will make it more difficult for planting and early growth on crops.

DRY SEASON STARTING EARLY FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Spotty showers developed in Brazil over the weekend, insufficient for developing corn. Scattered showers moving in from Argentina will slide northward through the country this week, settling into northern areas and out of much of the safrinha corn production by the end of the week. Showers are not expected to provide enough showers for central Brazil as the region heads into the dry season about two weeks early. Declining soil moisture over the last few weeks is concerning for much of central Brazil. While showers will leave southern areas for about a week, prospects for showers here are greater than farther north later this month.

ARGENTINA GOING DRY AGAIN

Isolated to widely scattered showers over the weekend end on Monday in Argentina. Dryness for about the following week will not be favorable for the remaining filling corn and soybeans.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Scattered showers moved back into Ukraine over the weekend and an upper level-low is forecast to remain in the area for much of the week, bringing periods of showers to the region. This should favor winter wheat but could limit fieldwork for corn.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick