Commodities Market Impact Weather

Warm Couple of Days Change Late Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big storm system coming in several waves later this week and next to the U.S. and a period of scattered showers in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

WARM, QUIET MIDWEST UNTIL WEEKEND

Soggy soils in the Midwest will be a concern for early planting of corn and soybeans later in March. A strong storm system late this week into the weekend and a secondary push early next week will add to the wetness concerns across the east. But precipitation across the Upper Midwest will improve soil moisture, especially in drought areas.

SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS WHEAT LIKELY MISSING OUT

Dry weather continues in the Southern Plains for the next few days, but a storm system will move right through the region late this week with a secondary push Sunday into Monday. Scattered mixed precipitation is likely with the systems, but chances for meaningful precipitation across the southwest drought areas continue to be low for winter wheat that is exiting dormancy.

WAVES OF SHOWERS FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Waves of showers will move through northern areas of the Pacific Northwest for much of the week, which should improve soil moisture. A stronger system will move through late this week with more widespread showers into the weekend and next week as well.

NORTHERN PLAINS MILD, BUT NOT FOR LONG

Dry conditions were noted across the Northern Plains over the weekend with warm temperatures melting quite a bit of the snow cover. The warmth will only last a few days and cold will return by the end of the week as a strong system to the south pulls down some colder air. Some light precipitation will fall across the region through the week before the system moves through. That could bring heavier mixed precipitation to southeastern areas.

SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVING FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

More widespread showers are expected across much of Brazil this week, including across drought areas in the south. That should improve soil moisture for safrinha corn. Forecasts have mostly improved shower chances across southern areas through mid-March, which may go a long way for corn. Dryness that is forecast for the second half of March may undo some of the beneficial rainfall, however.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

Scattered showers fell across much of Argentina over the weekend into Monday, improving some soil moisture across the country. Showers continue across the north Tuesday and another system is forecast to bring widespread showers through the area Friday through the weekend. While showers will provide some benefit for corn and soybeans, and be especially timely for some areas, dryness that follows for the rest of March will continue concerns over production.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick