DTN Daily Basis Comments

DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 10 cents under the March futures contract, while the DTN National Corn Index was up 1 cent at $5.93. The national average basis for soybeans was unchanged at 44 cents under the March futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was down 7 cents at $13.44. The national average basis for hard red winter (HRW) wheat was unchanged at 9 cents under the March futures contract and the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 18 cents at $7.60. The national average basis for hard red spring (HRS) wheat was unchanged at 24 cents under the March futures contract and the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 24 cents at $9.00.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$5.93	$0.01	-$0.10	Mar	-$0.004
Soybeans:	$13.44	-$0.07	-$0.44	Mar	$0.005
SRW Wheat:	$7.07	-$0.14	-$0.39	Mar	$0.008
HRW Wheat:	$7.60	-$0.18	-$0.09	Mar	$0.001
HRS Wheat:	$9.00	-$0.24	-$0.24	Mar	$0.002

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Thursday is 10 cents under the March futures, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. March corn closed up 1 1/2 Thursday, likely due to the hot and dry forecast for Argentina lasting into next week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 40% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent as of Jan. 5, versus 58% a week ago. Southern Brazil is also forecast to be mostly dry for the next week, with some rain chances in Parana through the weekend. Weekly export sales for the week ended Dec. 30 showed an increase of corn export sales but shipments were below what is needed each week to achieve USDA's export estimate, while export commitments are down 7% from a year ago. Meanwhile, another day of losses in cash ethanol prices doesn't bode well for ethanol margins. Ethanol plant basis was mixed with east-central Iowa 8 cents stronger, southwest Iowa 2 cents weaker, central Nebraska 1 cent stronger, and northwest Kansas 5 cents weaker. Track PNW shuttle basis was 5 cents stronger for February, while track St. Louis and CIF Gulf basis was 2 cents stronger. BNSF secondary shuttle freight remains high with returns bid at $2,300 over against offers of $3,250 and last-half January is bid $1,400 over against offers of $3,000 over. February is bid $1,200 over against offers of $3,000 over.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Thursday is at 44 cents under the March futures, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. A bearish weekly export sales and shipment report sent March soybeans lower Thursday, closing down 7 1/2 Thursday. USDA said for the week ended Dec. 30, 2021, total soybean export commitments are down 24% from a year ago. We have not seen China back in our market for new purchases for some time and with Brazil starting harvest, their prices are lower than U.S prices right now, making prospects for more sales looking bleak. USDA also reported that private exporters sold 3.7 million bushels (mb) (102,000 mt) of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/2022 marketing year. Track PNW shuttle basis was 5 cents stronger for January and first-half February, while CIF NOLA was 7 cents stronger. Low water at St. Louis is causing reduced drafts, while the cold weather is starting to hit the Illinois River pretty quickly. American Commercial Barge Lines noted, "All locks are requiring ice couplings and most locks have 100% ice coverage. ACBL has implemented tow-side reduction on all boats on the Illinois River and boats heading to the Illinois River due to the ice conditions."

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 39 cents under the March futures, unchanged from Wednesday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 9 cents under the Kansas City March futures, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. More liquidation in the KC March and a dismal export sales report sent the market down 18 1/2 cents Thursday. Mills continue to shy away from higher spot prices with 11.4% protein through 12.8% down 5 cents and 13% through 14% down 20 cents. The market is waiting to see the results of the Iraq tender and hoping the U.S. will get some of the business.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Thursday is at 24 cents under the Minneapolis March futures, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash premiums closed as follows based on Minneapolis March futures: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were not quoted; 13.5% proteins were not quoted; 14% proteins were up 5 cents to unchanged at +165*; 14.5% proteins were at +165*; 15% proteins were unchanged at +165N to +200, and 16 proteins were not quoted. Wheat receipts on the exchange floor were 58 cars, which included two train(s).* MGEX Daily Grain Prices are Delivered Chicago/Beyond: Spot No. 1 Milling Northern/Dark Northern Spring Wheat.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

(c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.