Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active pattern through the United States, a return to more La Nina-type conditions for Argentina and southern Brazil, and soggy fields in eastern Australia are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN MIDWEST

A storm system moving through the Midwest this weekend will bring scattered showers mostly to eastern areas. Another system is expected in the middle of next week despite a lot of uncertainty. Any showers will delay the remaining harvest and fieldwork yet to be done.

SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS REMAIN DRY

Dry conditions recently have increased drought in the southwestern Plains, a concern for winter wheat. A system will move through over the weekend but is expected to be mostly dry. A system will try to develop in the middle of next week, but models are having trouble deciding if it will bring any precipitation. It may take until late next week to do so, or the region could be missed entirely.

BRIEF SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

A front brought some showers to the Delta Wednesday night into Thursday and another front could bring more showers this weekend. Any rainfall will help winter wheat establishment, but could slow the remaining harvest.

SOUTHEAST SEEING GOOD HARVEST WEATHER

A front moved through the Southeast on Thursday but was dry. Another front looks to be mostly dry when it comes through on Monday as well. Mostly favorable harvest conditions are expected to continue through most of next week.

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A system is moving through with scattered showers Friday, with impacts mostly for the mountains with lighter showers in the valleys. Winter wheat continues to deal with drought before going dormant. More showers could come through later next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS BLACK SEA WHEAT

A system will move through the Black Sea region with a better chance for scattered showers through the weekend, but amounts are forecast to be light. Time is getting very short for showers to have an impact before dormancy, which typically arrives later this month.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL TRENDING DRIER

Scattered showers continue over central Brazil, favoring corn and soybean development. A front brought some needed rainfall to southern areas this week. Dryness after this front comes through should last through the weekend, and dryness is starting to take over southern states, typical of La Nina. Another front will quickly move through around the middle of next week with scattered showers. Central areas continue to see daily showers that will benefit corn and soybean development.

TYPICAL LA NINA PATTERN FOR ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina early this week with scattered showers, putting a cap on two weeks of good rainfall across the country. Dryness will follow behind it through the weekend, but there should be another system or two moving through early-to-mid-next week, maintaining timely showers. If the dry period lasts too long, we could see more stress developing.

WETNESS AFFECTING HARVEST AND QUALITY IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Wet soils in eastern Australia will take some time to drain and allow for harvest to increase for wheat and canola. Grain quality is also being affected and decreasing under the wet conditions. A system moving across the region through the weekend and another moving through around the middle of next week will benefit summer crops while causing further delays and quality issues for the wheat and canola harvest.

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Get a full rundown on the 2022 outlook for weather affecting U.S. and international crop areas during the DTN Ag Summit, Dec. 5-7, in Chicago. Visit www.dtn.com/agsummit for more details about the summit and to register. Register before Nov. 26 for the early bird rate.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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