Nov. 1 USDA Cattle on Feed Report

Nov. 1 Cattle on Feed Down Slightly

ShayLe Stewart
By  ShayLe Stewart , DTN Livestock Analyst
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.9 million head on Nov. 1, 2021. The inventory was slightly below Nov. 1, 2020, USDA NASS said on Friday. (DTN ProphetX chart)

This article was originally published at 2:04 p.m. CDT on Friday, Nov. 19. It was last updated at 2:41 p.m. on Friday, Nov. 19.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.9 million head on Nov. 1, 2021. The inventory was slightly below Nov. 1, 2020, USDA NASS said on Friday.

Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.25 million head, 2% above 2020. Net placements were 2.19 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 575,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 500,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 470,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 425,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 190,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 85,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.79 million head, 5% below 2020.

Other disappearance totaled 59,000 head during October, 6% below 2020.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Friday's Cattle on Feed Report came close to where analysts projected it would be, but again with this report, the takeaways from the data remain in the fine details," said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.

"First, after a less-than-profitable year throughout the cow-calf sector with drought crippling the West and hay prices crowding $250-$300/ton, the U.S.' cowherd has been liquidated at a staggering rate. Second, the cash cattle market has made stark advancements within the last month (achieving prices not last seen since June 2017 and selling near 100,000 head each week), which has tremendously helped clean up front-end supplies and secured leverage for feedlots. At some point, the total number of cattle on feed is going to be less than a year ago, and when it begins to drop, it will likely happen in a drastic fashion. Friday's latest on-feed data didn't show a decline, as the total number of cattle on feed totaled 11,948,000 head, which is only 25,000 head less than a year ago, and 132,000 head more than the total on-feed number for Nov. 1, 2019.

"The placement data was also extremely telling in Friday's COF report. Comparing the number of cattle placed by Nov. 1 to that of the cattle placed a month ago, there were 140,000 more calves weighing less than 600 pounds put on feed by Nov. 1 than there was by Oct. 1 -- totaling 575,000 head, to be precise. There were also 140,000 more calves weighing between 600 and 699 pounds placed by Nov. 1 than there were by Oct. 1, which now totals 500,000 head.

"A month from now when the next COF report is unveiled, it wouldn't be surprising to see the total number of cattle on feed down as marketings have been vigorous this past month with the cash cattle market finally demanding the attention it deserves."

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DTN subscribers can view the full Cattle on Feed reports in the Livestock Archives folder under the Markets menu. The report is also available at https://www.nass.usda.gov/….

USDA Actual Average Estimate Range
On Feed Nov. 1 100% 99.7% 98.9-100.1%
Placed in October 102% 102.4% 98.5-104.9%
Marketed in October 95% 96.1% 95.7-97.8%

ShayLe Stewart