DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. and the Canadian Prairies and a couple of troughs in eastern Canada. The ridge will strengthen over the West and Canadian Prairies while the troughs in eastern Canada will be continually spinning around each other for the next couple of days. One of them will expand southwestward to the middle of the U.S. over the weekend into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the ridge will spread across southern Canada next week and cutoff the trough across the eastern U.S. A trough in the Eastern Pacific may approach the Pacific Northwest late next week.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal east of the Rockies while being above normal in the West and into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will likely maintain this pattern with gradual warming through the period. A system may move into the Northern Plains in the middle of next week and move into the Midwest late in the week and weekend.

Scattered showers are likely to continue across the Southeast as well.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...117 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...35 AT ESTCOURT STATION ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...ASHTABULA OH 2.94 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. and the Canadian Prairies and a couple of troughs in eastern Canada. The ridge will strengthen over the West and Canadian Prairies while the troughs in eastern Canada will spin around each other for the next couple of days. One of them will expand southwestward to the middle of the U.S. over the weekend into next week.

The ridge will spread across southern Canada next week and cut off the trough across the eastern U.S. A trough in the eastern Pacific may approach the Pacific Northwest late next week.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal east of the Rockies while being above normal in the West and into the Northern Plains. Temperatures will likely maintain this pattern with gradual warming through the period. A system may move into the Northern Plains in the middle of next week and move into the Midwest late in the week and weekend.

Scattered showers are likely to continue across the Southeast as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system developing over South Dakota on Friday is bringing moderate to heavy rainfall for the state but other areas are likely to be dry into next week. Another system may come through in the middle of next week though models are unsure of how good coverage or amounts will be with it. More seasonable temperatures through the weekend are likely to rise next week, creating more stress for reproductive corn and soybeans.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Hot temperatures near 100F will aid in drying soils for the next couple of days, leading to some stress for reproductive corn and soybeans. A front will side southward with rain chances through the weekend and into Monday. Rainfall looks best for eastern Nebraska. Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front for next week, which would benefit drier areas.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through the region with moderate rainfall along with bouts of severe weather over the last couple of days. Where severe weather did not occur, the rains were beneficial. Most of Iowa missed out, however. Another round of beneficial rain will come to western areas through Saturday, providing a good section of Iowa with timely rains. It could give more heavy rain to saturated soils in Missouri and Illinois, however. Northwestern areas, particularly southern and western Minnesota, continue to be dry with declining corn and soybean conditions.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent showers have been very hit or miss, but helpful where they have occurred. More rainfall is expected with a weak front moving through on Friday, and another system coming through over the weekend into next week. Conditions remain mostly favorable for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Limited rainfall chances and temperatures mostly above normal will continue to be unfavorable for the next week. The next chance for meaningful rainfall comes in the middle of next week, but could be too late for both wheat and canola as harvest has already begun in Saskatchewan according to provincial reports.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Another round of frost continued Friday morning. It is getting too late for much of the corn crop to be affected as crops race toward maturity, but is having significant effects on specialty coffee, sugarcane, and citrus crops. Winter wheat will not enjoy the below-normal temperatures, but damage is not expected to be very significant.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Colder air and dryness will be unfavorable for the next week, though soil moisture continues to be adequate for vegetative winter wheat.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue across much of the continent for the next week as the pattern will keep pulses of energy moving into the region. This will favor reproductive wheat and corn in most areas except for the overly saturated areas around western Germany.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Systems will continue to pulse through Europe, which will bring periods of showers through Ukraine and northwest Russia over the course of the next week, but it will be likely to miss southwest Russia and the Volga Valley, areas that could use more moisture as temperatures go back above normal.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Showers will remain possible across northern areas for the next week while southern areas are unlikely to see much, stressing reproductive to filling spring crops.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers continue to favor vegetative winter wheat and canola. While the pattern will remain active for southern regions, northern New South Wales and Queensland are not expected to see as much precipitation for the next week. But these areas still have very good soil moisture.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The remnants of Typhoon In-Fa are forecast to move northeast through most of the major corn and soybean areas for the rest of this week and weekend. This could mean flooding rains and damage, hurting production. The system already produced incredibly damaging rainfall on the North China Plain with some areas seeing more than 10 inches.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers continue across the country. The remnants to Typhoon Cempaka will move west through the northern half of the country into next week with heavy rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Heavy rain south Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers southwest Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Saturday, south Sunday-Monday.

Isolated showers west Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday, south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday night. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal north and well below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal north and well below normal south Friday, near normal north and below normal south Saturday-Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...118 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...28 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...TUSCON AZ 2.03 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. and a broad trough across most of Canada. The ridge will strengthen early this week, and the trough may remain over eastern Canada and dip into the Northeast U.S. at times as well. This will set up a storm track near the U.S.-Canada border through the period.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement on the pattern but not on the details. I will favor the European with differences, which brings cooler air in the middle of the country while the U.S. model does not.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal across North-Central and Northeast and near to above normal elsewhere. Below normal temperatures may spread south into next week while heat continues in the west. A system will form in the Central Plains on Friday and move southeast through the Southeast over the weekend with moderate to heavy rainfall. Another system may develop in the Northern Plains near the end of the period with heavy rain potential.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved across the Dakotas this weekend but were not particularly heavy or widespread. Isolated showers may continue through the week, but no significant showers are forecast until a system moves across the south Friday into Saturday. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible in South Dakota in this time frame but the rest of the region could stay dry until a system moves through early-to-midweek next week. Heat near or eclipsing 100 F will continue through Wednesday before a weak front pushes temperatures back down toward 90 F for the rest of the week. Even with the potential rainfall, the heat will be a significant issue for reproductive corn and soybeans and livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the region this weekend, causing some delays to the ongoing winter wheat harvest. And while most areas saw only light rainfall, there was a strip of heavy rain along the Nebraska/Kansas border that produced some flooding. Scattered showers helped some areas, but the region is in need of more moisture for reproductive corn and soybeans. Overall light showers will not be much of a benefit. High temperatures near 100 F will aid in drying soils as well, leading to some stress.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought scattered showers to the region this weekend. This benefited some areas of northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, but much of the drier areas of the northwest that are in drought saw little to no beneficial showers. Wetter southern and eastern areas saw more scattered moderate to heavy rainfall, but no significant flooding. Minnesota is in line to have another couple of shots at rain early this week, which will help with drought conditions in some areas, while other areas will remain mostly dry. Temperatures will be hot across the west with highs well into the 90s before a system moves through on Wednesday and Thursday that will bring more widespread showers. Another round of beneficial rain will come through this weekend and may get most of Iowa with timely rains. It could give more heavy rain to saturated soils in Missouri and Illinois, however.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated showers moved through the region this weekend and will continue through Wednesday. More rainfall is expected with a weak front moving through on Friday, and another system coming through over the weekend. Conditions remain mostly favorable for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Most areas were dry this weekend with temperatures nearing 90F across the south. The combination continues to stress reproductive to filling wheat and canola. Limited rainfall chances and temperatures mostly above normal will continue to be unfavorable for the next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather occurred this weekend. A front will bring showers across southern areas early this week, but also with falling temperatures again. Another round of frost will be possible again Wednesday through Friday mornings. It is getting too late for much of the rain to have any benefit, and luckily, too late for much of the corn crop to be affected either as crops race toward maturity. Winter wheat will not enjoy the below-normal temperatures, but damage is not expected to occur.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Some light showers occurred across the east this weekend, but most areas remained dry. A front will move through northern areas on Monday with colder air funneling in from the south. Most of the country will remain unfavorably dry this week, though soil moisture continues to be adequate for vegetative winter wheat.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through the continent over the weekend. Moderate rain over western Germany may have caused some additional flooding concerns for saturated soils from prior rains. Otherwise, rainfall was mostly beneficial for spring wheat and corn. Scattered showers will continue across much of the continent this week as the pattern will keep pulses of energy moving into the region.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Very little rainfall occurred over the weekend, but temperatures were closer to normal. Systems will continue to pulse through Europe, which will bring periods of showers through Ukraine and northwest Russia over the course of the next week, but it will be likely to miss southwest Russia and the Volga Valley, areas that could use more moisture as temperatures go back above normal.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Scattered showers moved across northern areas over the weekend, but most of Kazakhstan was dry, unfavorable for heading spring grains. Showers will remain possible across northern areas through the week while southern areas are unlikely to see much, stressing the crops.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, continuing to favor vegetative winter wheat and canola. While the pattern will remain active for southern regions, northern New South Wales and Queensland are not expected to see as much precipitation this week. But these areas still have very good soil moisture.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Typhoon In-Fa has weakened significantly since coming ashore in central China south of Shanghai. The system is forecast to move further inland and across northeast areas through the week and weekend. This could mean flooding rains for corn and soybean areas, but there is some uncertainty with the track, especially after Thursday.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers continue across the country, but are forecast to be less intense for most areas until Friday and into next week when the remnants to Typhoon Cempaka move west through the northern half of the country.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers, mostly missing Iowa. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers north through Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Thursday, near normal Friday.

East: Scattered showers north Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday, southwest Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday through Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers north Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Sunday, near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Monday, north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers MGDS Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, near normal north and well below normal south Wednesday through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers northeast. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

John Baranick