Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat on its way out but relatively dry conditions across the Corn Belt and frosts in Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

COOLER MIDWEST WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

A front moving through Midwest is bringing temperatures down quite a bit and producing severe weather as it does as well. Where severe weather do not occur, the rains will be beneficial. Another round of beneficial rain will come through this weekend, and may get a good section of Iowa with timely rains. It could give more heavy rain to saturated soils in Missouri and Illinois, however. Northwestern areas, particularly southern and western Minnesota, continue to be dry with declining corn and soybean conditions.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN CHANCES

High temperatures near 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the Southern Plains will aid in drying soils for the next couple of days, leading to some stress for reproductive corn and soybeans. There is a good chance for helpful rain coming Friday and Saturday to Nebraska, with light to moderate rain from Kansas southward this weekend. Lower temperatures are forecast behind the system for next week, which would benefit drier areas.

SOUTHERN RAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will develop over South Dakota on Friday and bring moderate to heavy rainfall but other areas of the Northern Plains are likely to be dry. Another system may come through in the middle of next week though models are unsure of how good coverage or amounts will be with it. More seasonable temperatures through the weekend are likely to rise next week, creating more stress for reproductive corn and soybeans.

FAVORABLE DELTA GROWING CONDITIONS

Recent showers in the Delta have been very hit or miss, but helpful where they have occurred. More rainfall is expected with a weak front moving through on Friday, and another system coming through during the weekend into next week. Conditions remain mostly favorable for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

NEAR-DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

In the Southeast, near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

HOT AND DRY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Limited rainfall chances and temperatures mostly above normal in the Canadian Prairies will continue to be unfavorable for the next week. The next chance for meaningful rainfall comes in the middle of next week, but could be too late for wheat and canola.

FROSTS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Another round of frost continues in southern Brazil through Friday mornings. It is getting too late for much of the corn crop to be affected as crops race toward maturity, but is having significant effects on specialty crops such as coffee, sugarcane, and citrus. Winter wheat will not enjoy the below-normal temperatures, but damage is not expected to be very significant.

EAST-WEST DIFFERENCES IN THE BLACK SEA

Systems will continue to pulse through Europe, which will bring periods of showers through Ukraine and northwest Russia during the course of the next week, but it will be likely to miss southwest Russia and the Volga Valley, areas that could use more moisture as temperatures go back above normal.

REMNANTS OF TYPHOON IN-FA FLOODING CHINA

The remnants of Typhoon In-Fa have brought 4 to 6 inches of rainfall on the North China Plain during the last day or two. The remnants are forecast to move northeast through most of the major corn and soybean areas for the rest of this week and weekend. This could mean flooding rains and damage, hurting production.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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