Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Scattered showers across the Corn Belt, especially near the Great Lakes, and a relatively similar pattern in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

LIMITED MIDWEST SHOWERS

A frontal boundary continues to produce some showers for northern sections of the Midwest this week, but amounts are very limited. Another front will move through the region with more scattered showers this weekend, especially across the north. The front may stay active across the region into early next week with isolated shower chances. Heat will spread across the region during the next few days, stressing developing to reproductive corn and soybeans in drier sections of the region, particularly in the northwest. Conditions continue to be much better across the southeast where drier conditions will allow more saturated soils to drain and hasten crop development.

FAVORABLE HARVEST CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

Drier conditions continue for the next few days in the Southern Plains outside of some very isolated showers. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend and next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for the remaining wheat harvest and developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. But if rain does not come with the heat, we could see stress developing for corn and soybeans.

HEAT AND LIMITED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Near triple-digit heat continues in the Northern Plains for the next several days. Stress continues to mount for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans, and has taken a massive toll on spring wheat. A front may bring some scattered showers on Friday, and isolated showers may continue into next week, but the heat will continue through the end of July and the showers are unlikely to have more than a local benefit.

FAVORABLE DELTA CONDITIONS

Isolated showers will remain in the Delta into next week, being mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

In the Southeast, daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

DRIER CONDITIONS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some isolated showers moved across the Canadian Prairies this week but most areas have seen very little precipitation and has not significantly affected the drought. Isolated showers will remain possible for the next week, though amounts are not expected to be very helpful for reproductive to filling spring wheat and canola. Temperatures mostly above normal will continue to stress the crops as well.

BRAZIL WEATHER CHALLENGES CONTINUE

Recent frosts across Parana and Rio Grande do Sul were another layer of adverse weather conditions for filling safrinha (second crop) corn in Brazil. Dry weather through this weekend will not be favorable for crops but it is getting too late to have much of an impact as corn matures. Wheat across the south is faring better but could still use more moisture. A front early next week could provide some beneficial rains for wheat but also falling temperatures.

FAVORABLE RAINS IN THE BLACK SEA

Recent hot weather in Ukraine and western Russia are being pushed aside as a frontal boundary works slowly across the region. The front is bringing scattered showers, which will help to improve soil moisture after the heatwave. Even with the heat over the last week, most areas have had enough soil moisture to get by except for the Volga Valley region of Russia. Dryness here may have had some negative impacts to wheat and corn. Dryness follows the system, however, and more showers would be welcome for those areas that get missed this week. That may come mid-late next week in Ukraine but is questionable whether showers will occur for much of Russia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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