This article was originally posted at 11:03 a.m. CST. It was updated at 12:30 p.m.
OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA increased corn production to 15.165 billion bushels (bb), reflecting the updated 92.7-million-acre planting estimate from the June 30 Acreage report. It left yield estimates unchanged at 179.5 bushel per acre (bpa). Ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year came in at 1.432 bb.
USDA's estimated soybean average yield was left untouched at 50.8 bpa. USDA also left 2021-22 soybean production unchanged at 4.405 bb.
Spring wheat production was forecast at 345 million bushels (mb), 41% below last year. Yields are expected to average 30.7 bpa, 17.9 bpa below last year.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Monday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and bullish for wheat. Meanwhile, Hultman pegged Monday's world ending stocks estimates from USDA as neutral for corn, bearish for soybeans and bullish for wheat.
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-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
UDSA's July supply and demand report reflects the higher acreage estimate from the June 30 survey of farmers. Using 92.7 million acres (ma) of planted acres, corn production increased by 175 mb. USDA also lowered beginning stocks, which are the ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop season by 25 mb.
Ending stocks for 2021-21 came in at 1.432 bb, reflecting the changes to supply but also numerous demand changes. USDA increased feed and residual use by 25 mb and exports by 50 mb.
The national average farm gate price was lowered by a dime to $5.60 per bushel.
USDA raised old-crop (2020-21) domestic ending stocks to 1.082 bb, a 25 mb increase that reflects higher feed and residual use implied by the June 30 Grain Stocks report.
Globally, USDA's outlook for 2021-22 corn ending stocks is 291.18 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.77 mmt from last month, largely reflecting increased production estimates from the United States.
Old-crop (2020-21) global ending stocks were lowered to 279.86 mmt. USDA lowered Brazil production to 93 mmt from last month's 98.5 mmt estimate, reflecting drought conditions that have taken a toll on the crop. Argentina partially made up for the decline in Brazilian production, with USDA raising its crop production estimate 1.5 mmt to 48.5 mmt.
With USDA's estimated soybean average yield untouched at 50.8 bpa, USDA also left 2021-22 soybean production unchanged at 4.405 bb. The agency also left all supply and demand for new-crop soybeans unchanged, as well as ending stocks for old-crop beans. That left new crop ending stocks at 155 mb, higher than most analysts expected.
U.S. farmgate soybean prices were trimmed 15 cents to $13.70 per bushel.
Globally, 2020-21 soybean ending stocks were boosted beyond analyst expectations to 91.49 million metric tons (mmt), up from 88 mmt in June. That spilled over into higher new-crop ending stocks of 94.49 mmt, despite trimming new-crop production estimates slightly to 385.22 mmt.
USDA's old-crop soybean production estimate for Brazil was left at 137 mmt, while USDA decreased Argentina's slightly to 46.5 mmt, down from 47 mmt in June.
USDA trimmed its estimate of all wheat production to 1.746 bb, down from 1.898 bb in its June report and on the low end of analysts' pre-report estimates. Ending stocks for old-crop wheat were left at 844 mb, unchanged from the June Grain Stocks report. With lower beginning stocks, lowered production, and trimmed feed and residual use more than offsetting a modest gain of 20 mb in imports, USDA dropped new-crop wheat ending stocks down to 665 mb, down from 770 mb in June -- again on the low end of pre-report estimates.
Wheat farm-gate prices were bumped up 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel.
USDA projected spring wheat production at just 345 mb below pre-report estimates and a whopping 41% decline from last year. Estimated spring wheat yield also took a hit from current drought conditions in the Northern Plains, dropping 17.9 bpa from last year to 30.7 bpa. If realized, this would be the lowest yield since 2002. USDA left expected harvested acreage at 11.2 million acres, unchanged from the June acreage report, and down 7% from last year.
Durum production was another victim on ongoing drought in the Northern Plains, with USDA hacking its production estimate down 46% from last year, to 37.2 mb, and average yield trimmed to 25.8 bpa, down 15.6 bpa from 2020.
Winter wheat is faring better, with USDA pegging winter wheat production 1.36 bb, up from 4% from the June estimate and up 16% from last year. As of July 1, yield is forecast of 53.6 bpa, up 2.7 bushels from last year. Area expected for harvest remains at 25.4 million acres, up 11% from last year.
Hard red winter (HRW) wheat production is also up 4% from the June estimate at 805 mb. Soft red winter (SRW) wheat is bumped up 8% from June to 362 mb. In contrast, white winter wheat production was trimmed due to ongoing droughty conditions in the Pacific Northwest, down to 198 mb, down 2% from the June estimate.
Globally, USDA put ending stocks for 2021-22 at 291.68 mmt, 5.12 mmt lower than last month due to reduced beginning stocks in some countries as wells as lower U.S. production.
Monday's WASDE shared a different outlook than what the market saw a month ago. The biggest changes were seen in the pork sector as lower production had to be accounted for upon seeing the latest USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. The report indicated that there are fewer sows to be farrowed, which yields fewer hogs to market later in the marketing cycle, and already packers are running slower processing speeds amid tight market ready hog supplies.
For 2021, pork production was reduced by 40 million pounds, and beef production remained unchanged. Pork production was reduced as processing speeds have been cut, and unchanged beef production passes the smell test as lighter carcass weights offset the market's heightened slaughter pace.
Projected steer prices for the third quarter jumped $5.00 from last month to average an estimated $120.00, and fourth quarter steer prices jumped $3.00 to $123.00. These quarterly increases pushed the annual steer price to average $119.20, which is $2.20 more than last month's projection of $117.00
Barrow and gilt prices for the third quarter fell by $1.00 to $77.00, and fourth quarter hog prices fell by $2.00 to average an anticipated $64.00. These quarterly price reductions pulled the projected barrow and gilt prices to average $69.40, which is $0.80 less than last month's production.
Beef imports were unchanged from a month ago, but beef exports grew by another 80 million pounds to 3,422 million pounds for the year. Both pork imports and exports were unchanged from a month ago (imports at 982 million pounds and exports at 7,552 million pounds).
Editor's Note: Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Monday, July 12, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://ag.dtn.com/…
|U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2021-22|
|U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2021-22 (WASDE)|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2020-21|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2021-22|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2020-21|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2021-22|
|WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2020-21|
|U.S. PRODUCTION (million bushels) 2021-22|
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