Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drought Areas Largely Missed by Moderate Rain

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Moderate to heavy rain across the Eastern Corn Belt but limited showers across the Western Corn Belt, and a long-lasting heatwave in the Black Sea region, are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Monday.

MODERATE EASTERN MIDWEST RAINS

Several waves of showers moved through the Midwest this weekend with many reports of severe weather. There were some flooding rains in southern Indiana and southwest Ohio with more moderate amounts along the Iowa/Missouri border through central Illinois, and across southern Michigan. The system moving through the area will continue to produce rainfall across the southeast through Monday afternoon before showers largely push off to the southeast. Drought areas have seen some rains during the last several days, but will need more. Another system is expected to move through late this week and weekend, with another promise of beneficial rains across the region. Like the previous storm, showers will likely be scattered and areas will likely be missed.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

Scattered showers moved through the Southern Plains this weekend and there were many reports of wind damage from Colorado through Kansas and Nebraska from Saturday night's activity. Moderate rains were limited to strips from northeast Colorado along the Kansas/Nebraska border region, and across southern Kansas from Sunday night's activity. Showers will move southeast Monday as a front finally drops temperatures for a few days this week, as it remained hot during the weekend. Conditions had been good for winter wheat harvest but deteriorating for corn and soybeans. The rains are helpful but likely not enough and more will be needed. A system will move through with better chances for widespread rain late this week and weekend.

LITTLE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains during the weekend, but rainfall was not consistent or widespread. Most areas saw less than 1 inch as the drought continues. Temperatures did fall to more seasonable readings, but that appears to be brief as temperatures go through a roller-coaster type pattern during the next seven days. There will be another chance for rain Wednesday through Friday, but showers look to be very isolated.

DELTA MISSED BY TROPICAL STORM

Hot and dry conditions were noted across the Delta during the weekend, benefiting draining of saturated soils and developing cotton and soybeans. A front should bring widespread showers to the region Monday, but amounts will be light. There will be another chance for showers as another front moves through during the weekend and into next week.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHEAST

Tropical Storm Claudette moved through the Southeast with widespread rainfall, being heavy near its path. The system pushes offshore, but it is followed by a front that should stall and produce more showers through the end of the week. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton.

TRENDING WARMER IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies this weekend, but were mostly light. Temperatures will be on a roller coaster during the next week, but after Tuesday be more above normal than below it. Soil conditions are mostly favorable for developing wheat and canola, but more showers would be beneficial. Only small chances for rain are in the forecast this week.

CENTRAL BRAZIL STAYS DRY

Central areas of Brazil continued to be dry this weekend, but southern areas did see some moderate to heavy rain move through. Another system will bring more showers to southern areas through Tuesday and another system may stall across southern states late this week and weekend. Corn continues to see terrible conditions as they get closer to or through maturity but conditions are mostly favorable for developing wheat.

BLACK SEA HEATWAVE

An upper-level low produced scattered showers over the southwest of the Black Sea region this weekend while heat was building over the drier eastern portions. The heat will be a mainstay through the week, especially across southwest Russia, where temperatures may eclipse 100 degrees Fahrenheit for several days. Soil moisture will hold out for a while as showers had been very persistent last week, but the heat could quickly turn soils dry for developing corn and spring wheat. Showers will start to move into the region this weekend, dropping temperatures by several degrees.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick