DTN Daily Basis Comments

Tuesday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was 1 cent weaker at 8 cents over the July futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 25 cents at $6.93. The national average basis for soybeans was 3 cents weaker at 28 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was down 39 cents at $14.44. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent weaker at 16 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 11 cents at $6.13. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 31 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 18 cents at $7.16.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $6.68 -$0.25 $0.08 Jul -$0.002
Soybeans: $14.44 -$0.39 -$0.28 Jul -$0.025
SRW Wheat: $6.52 -$0.07 -$0.23 Jul -$0.012
HRW Wheat: $6.13 -$0.11 -$0.16 Jul -$0.005
HRS Wheat: $7.16 -$0.18 -$0.31 Jul -$0.002

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Monday is at 8 cents over the July futures, 1 cent weaker than Friday's basis. July corn closed down 25 1/4 cents Monday, continuing its downward slide from Friday. It wasn't weather pressuring corn as there was little over the weekend. Temps in the western Plains are expected to stay in the 90s the next three days and in Minnesota corn country, rain has been elusive as temperatures have been extremely hot. The Central Corn Belt has chances for moderate showers the next seven days, but the 8- to 14-day forecast calls for a broad coverage of rain over much of the Corn Belt. Track St. Louis and CIF NOLA basis were 1 cent weaker and ethanol plant basis was mixed. Cheaper cash corn is still good for plant margins, but cash ethanol and DDG prices have also been lower. Just the possibility of the Biden administration changing the RFS mandate has the ethanol sector concerned.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Monday is at 28 cents under the July futures, 3 cents weaker than Friday's basis. Soybeans were sharply lower with July down 36 1/4 cents Monday as the market saw its fourth day of lower prices, followed by July soybean oil down 1.02 cents. Both came under pressure from the Reuters story that U.S. senators are asking President Joe Biden to give refiners relief from the biofuel mandates and this year's high RIN prices. We still have yet to see anything official from the White House on this, but it spooked the soybean and corn markets and RINS prices dropped as much as 25 cents late Friday. A potential change in the RFS compliance obligation requirements will likely create uncertainty in soybean oil demand. The track PNW shuttle basis for September was 8 cents weaker and FH October was 5 cents weaker, signaling the lack of fresh demand. Track St. Louis basis for September was 5 cents weaker and CIF Gulf basis was 3 cents weaker. Nearby river basis continues to fade back and barge freight is still seeing no bids, just offers and that includes new-crop months.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Monday is at 23 cents under the July futures, 1 cent weaker than Friday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Monday is at 16 cents under the Kansas City July futures, 1 cent weaker than Friday's basis. KC July was down 10 cents, dragged lower once again by spring wheat futures and the increase in harvest the next few weeks. Ordinary protein basis at the Gulf and on the KC spot market continues to fade and the spread between sub-12% and 12% protein has widened considerably. This is likely an indication of what is expected in the upcoming new crop.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Monday is at 31 cents under the Minneapolis July futures, unchanged from Friday's basis.

The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis July futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were not quoted, 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +85N, 14% proteins were unchanged to down 10 cents at +100N to +110; 14.5% proteins were unchanged at +90 and 15% proteins were not quoted. Receipts were 5 cars, which included zero train(s).* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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