Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drought Stress Continues Across the North

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat across the north with some mixed precipitation and the continued dryness in central Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Monday.

HEAT WITH SHOWERS IN MIDWEST

There were scorching high temperatures across the northern Midwest this weekend. An upper-level low in the Ozarks will move slowly through the Midwest this week, exiting east on Friday. The low will bring daily showers east of its location as it pulls up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. For areas in the west, and specifically in Iowa and Minnesota, very little rainfall is forecast as this low moves east of these locations. Temperatures will remain well-above normal for most of this week, especially where showers do not occur. Western areas will likely see more stress developing this week, while eastern areas could see some easing with widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall through Friday. Without much showers, stress will be a large concern across most of Iowa and Minnesota. A system will move through this coming weekend with a better chance for showers across the west on Friday.

FAVORABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

In the Southern Plains, scattered showers dotted the west but were more consistent across the east as an upper-level low started to move northeast from Texas this weekend. Showers are likely to continue across eastern areas for the next few days. Some showers may move across Nebraska at times as well. Soil moisture continues to be mostly adequate around the region for filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans.

HOT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Triple-digit high temperatures engulfed most of the Northern Plains Friday and Saturday, but conditions cooled across the northwest on Sunday after a front moved through. There were some isolated showers as well, but amounts were light and limited. The heat will remain across the majority of the region through the week with only a small reprieve as a system moves through Thursday night through Friday. Isolated showers will remain possible throughout the week, but will be quite isolated. The system that moves through late this week may offer more widespread moderate showers, but dryness is likely to follow that system into next week. Drought stress continues to be significant and severe across the bulk of the region. The storms that do occur may also be strong or severe, which could cause damage as well.

CONTINUED DELTA SHOWERS

An upper-level system brought scattered showers to the Delta this weekend and will continue to do so through Thursday before its effects will shift farther east. Overall, conditions are quite favorable for developing soybeans and cotton.

WIDESPREAD SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered pop-up type showers are expected across the Southeast for the next week, increasing soil moisture for areas that had become rather dry recently. Overall, conditions are good for developing cotton but are a little difficult for planting it.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies during the weekend, but were rather light for most areas. Some better showers moved across northern areas on Sunday. Conditions that were hot or record-breaking last week cooled closer to normal for most areas except in Manitoba, where temperatures remained well-above normal until Sunday. Periods of scattered showers will continue this week with mostly seasonable temperatures, favoring most crops in most areas.

DRYNESS CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered moderate to heavy showers moved through southern Brazil with a front during the weekend while central states remained dry. This will continue for most of this week. The front will try to push into Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais late this week, but showers will quickly dry up as it does so. Corn in these areas are running out of time for rainfall to be beneficial and drought stress continues to have harsh outcomes.

DAILY BLACK SEA SHOWERS

An upper-level low produced isolated to scattered showers across the Black Sea region this weekend, especially across southern Russia, where the moisture was needed the most. Temperatures were a little below normal, helping more of the rainfall soak into the ground rather than evaporate, but slowing crop growth. The upper-level low will remain in the region through the week, helping to increase soil moisture for developing crops, but keeping temperatures close to normal.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick