DTN Daily Basis Comments

Thursday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 13 cents under the May futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 10 cents at $5.22. The national average basis for soybeans was 1 cent stronger at 37 cents under the May futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was down 4 cents at $13.70. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent weaker at 27 cents under the May futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 10 cents at $5.99. The national average basis for HRS wheat was 1 cent stronger at 32 cents under the May futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 2 cents at $6.11.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $5.22 -$0.10 -$0.13 May -$0.003
Soybeans: $13.70 -$0.04 -$0.37 May $0.008
SRW Wheat: $6.33 -$0.11 -$0.23 May -$0.004
HRW Wheat: $5.99 -$0.10 -$0.27 May -$0.003
HRS Wheat: $6.11 -$0.02 -$0.32 May $0.002

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Wednesday is at 13 cents under the May futures, unchanged from Tuesday's basis. May corn futures closed down 9 3/4 cents, coming under pressure from a higher U.S. dollar and weakness in the wheat futures. China has been notably absent from U.S. corn purchases, and it may be related to the return of African swine fever there and slowing feed usage. Corn and wheat have become more entwined recently as wheat has become a favorite for feeders because it is cheaper than corn. The weekly EIA report was no surprise this week, showing an increase in ethanol plant production last week; but the good news is margins are improving somewhat. The track PNW shuttle basis was 5 cents weaker for March and April, while CIF NOLA basis was stronger. UP secondary shuttle freight was higher for first half March with bids at $300 per car above tariff against offers of $600 and last-half bid at $100 over against offers of $400 over. BNSF secondary freight was firm with first-half March bid at $200 over against offers of $250. Many shippers are still trying to play catch-up after the challenging weather in February caused rail slowdowns. End users are seeing steady corn hauling into their plants as farmers deliver contracted corn ahead of load restrictions likely starting sooner than later.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Wednesday is at 37 cents under the May futures, 1 cent stronger than Tuesday's basis. May soybean futures were down 5 cents midweek under pressure from the higher USD, while soybean oil posted a gain of 12 cents. Soybean oil is the underlying strength of the complex as demand is strong and worries of tight supplies remain on the forefront. Weather in South America is still problematic for their harvest and the ability to get new-crop beans to the waiting ships at the ports, with the seven-day forecast continuing to expect heavy rain amounts across central Brazil. Processors in the U.S. are facing their own dilemma as the soybean supply remains tight, and there has been movement of North Dakota soybeans to some plants in Iowa as well as to St. Louis. The CIF NOLA basis was 1 cent stronger, while track St. Louis basis was steady. Basis on the Ohio River is weaker as flooding is hampering loadings and basically any movement of the river. The Ohio River Thursday at Cairo, Illinois, is at 44.76 feet, with minor flood stage at 40 feet.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Wednesday is at 23 cents under the May futures, 1 cent weaker than Tuesday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Wednesday is at 27 cents under the Kansas City May futures, 1 cent weaker than Tuesday's basis. The KC May closed down 9 1/4 cents as the market has looked past Monday's crop conditions and are focusing on the lack of export business. There has been chatter that China was sniffing around for U.S. new-crop soft red wheat but nothing firm right now, and it would be risky for U.S. sellers to guarantee quality at this point. Gulf HRW wheat ords basis is still flat, and PNW 11.5% is as well. There just isn't the demand there right now.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Wednesday is at 32 cents under the Minneapolis May futures, 1 cent stronger Tuesday's basis.The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis May futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were not quoted; 13.5% proteins were up 20 cents at +120; 14% proteins were unchanged at +120*; 14.5% proteins were down 5 cents to up 10 cents at +105 to +120; 15% proteins were down 20 cents at +130*. Receipts were 74 cars, which included two trains.* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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