DTN Ag Weather Brief
DTN Ag Weather Brief
HIGH MON...87 AT CHINO CA AND 2 MILES WEST OF PALA CA AND WOODLAND HILLS CA LOW MON...10 BELOW ZERO AT 3 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST GUNNISON CO
24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...ST PETERSBURG FL 1.44 INCHES
US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:A ridge is located in the Central with troughs in the West and East. A deep trough digs into the Central Wednesday and Thursday and the East Thursday to Saturday. Meanwhile, a ridge builds in the West Wednesday and Thursday and the Central Friday and Saturday. A trough-ridge-trough sets up early next week. A trough expands across the West and Central with a ridge in the East by midweek.
The U.S. and European models have some good agreement on the overall pattern, but they differ on the speed and development of some storm systems, especially in the outlook period. I will use a blend of the models but favor the European.
For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be above normal in the Plains, Delta, and Midwest and near to below normal in parts of the West. Below normal temperatures will build in the West as above normal temperatures in the Plains moderate toward normal. Near to above normal temperatures will build in the Midwest and northern Plains next Tuesday and Wednesday as below normal temperatures expand in the West, central Plains, and southern Plains. Periods of showers will spread across the Pacific Northwest and California next weekend into next week. A system will bring scattered shower chances across the Midwest, Delta, and Southeast Sunday and next Monday. Another system will develop in the Plains around midweek next week with rain south and snow north.
MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:
NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): Above normal temperatures early this week will limit stress on livestock, but a short-lived burst of below normal temperatures will move through around midweek. Little precipitation is expected early this week. A storm system will bring light snow and gusty winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry and warmer weather will return by Friday through the weekend.
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Mostly dry weather occurred this weekend outside of eastern Texas. The next chances for isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will move through late Tuesday and Wednesday, best chances in the central Plains. Generally drier weather is expected for the remainder of the week and weekend.
MIDWEST (WHEAT): Wheat has gone dormant in mostly good condition. Periods of scattered showers occurred this weekend and Monday in the East. Scattered moderate showers will increase soil moisture Wednesday and Thursday and may bring some accumulating snow in spots.
BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Much needed, scattered, moderate showers moved through the southern growing regions this weekend, benefiting corn and soybeans as they enter or move through reproduction. However, a drier pattern will return this week for these southern growing areas. Scattered showers will increase in coverage across central and northern growing areas this week, bringing some welcome precipitation.
ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought much needed widespread, moderate showers this weekend, benefiting developing corn and soybeans. Drier weather is expected this week. However, western areas that have been dry and have missed out on some of the rain this weekend will show more signs of stress.
EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Winter grains have gone into dormancy in good condition across the north and east. Recent showers across Spain and Italy have been beneficial for developing wheat, maintaining the overall early prospects on the crop. Periods of scattered showers will expand across Europe this week as an active, wetter pattern continues.
NORTHERN AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been adequate over eastern areas recently. Although showers have fallen in Morocco, more will be needed as wheat develops. More showers are expected early this week in Algeria and Tunisia where prospects are better. Mostly dry weather will develop in all areas around midweek this week, but shower chances will return to at least eastern areas by Friday.
SOUTH AFRICA (CORN/SUGARCANE): Isolated to scattered showers will continue to move through the region, benefiting developing corn and sugarcane. Showers will continue to be in the area through this week.
AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Weekend and Monday showers across New South Wales and Queensland benefited developing cotton and sorghum.
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Showers will become more isolated this week. The late harvest of wheat and canola have seen some delays but developing cotton and sorghum will benefit.
MALAYSIA/INDONESIA (PALM OIL): Recent and forecast showers have been adequate for palm oil prospects as showers continue.
EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:
Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)
Summary:
West: Scattered showers, mainly north. Temperatures above normal.
East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast:
West: Isolated showers far north Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday into Thursday with snow accumulation north. Isolated showers far north Friday.
Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.
East: Scattered lingering showers Tuesday. Scattered moderate showers Wednesday-Thursday with some snow accumulation possible. Scattered snow showers and lake effect snow Friday-early Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal west and above normal east Thursday, below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.
6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday-Monday with some snow accumulation possible. Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, near normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.
Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.
Forecast: Isolated showers far north late Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, mainly central Plains. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers late Saturday, mainly central Plains. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.
6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers late Monday, mainly central Plains.
Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.
Brazil Soybeans and Corn...
Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...
Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north.
Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday, mainly north. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Friday-Saturday.
Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...
Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.
Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday, mainly north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Saturday.
Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...
Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.
La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...
Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.
Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.
Justin Wegwerth can be reached at justin.wegwerth@dtn.com
DTN Ag Meteorologist
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