Commodities Market Impact Weather

Central Brazil Rain Chance

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Possible rain for central Brazil and limited moisture in the Argentina forecast are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

MIXED MIDWEST MOISTURE

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for favorable conditions in soft red winter wheat areas of the eastern Midwest following snow this week. Wheat is in favorable moisture conditions for dormancy. Final corn harvest in the eastern Midwest is delayed further by snow and colder conditions. Dryness and drought continue in the western Midwest.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SNOW

In the Southern Plains, a system brought moderate to heavy snow in Kansas and Oklahoma Tuesday. Most areas saw some precipitation, benefiting winter wheat. The crop may be entering dormancy due to lack of precipitation and temperatures falling below freezing in the west. Eastern areas are enjoying much better conditions. As showers leave Thursday, a week of dryness is expected.

WARM AND DRY IN NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains region has a continued dry and mild pattern through the next week. No stressful cold is expected. This pattern is favorable for livestock. Dryness is leading to expanding drought in the region; extreme drought is noted in central North Dakota, and moderate drought now covers most of South Dakota.

SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Southeast crop areas have incurred delays in the final stage of cotton harvest due to rainfall. More showers are expected Thursday night and Friday, further delaying the remaining harvest.

VARIABLE BRAZIL RAIN POTENTIAL

Across Brazil, scattered showers have fallen across southern areas over the last several days with little rainfall elsewhere. This has relieved some stress on developing corn and soybeans from Rio Grande do Sul to Parana but caused stress further north. Showers will return to central and northern areas by this weekend and continue through next week. The stress is concerning. Rain has the potential to reach significant totals in Mato Grosso and adjacent areas. Showers are important as corn and soybeans move into reproduction.

DRIER ARGENTINA FORECAST

Scattered showers fell across much of Argentina over the last week, with moderate to heavy showers across the north. Showers will leave northern areas by Friday, followed by dry conditions through most of the next week. Areas that have been missed in the south could experience more stress for developing corn and soybeans.

FAVORABLE EUROPE CONDITIONS

Europe winter grains have temperatures running below freezing for much of the north and east. Crops are entering dormancy in good condition. Scattered showers in Spain and Italy will maintain favorable conditions for developing winter wheat.

NORTH AFRICA RAIN CHANCE

In North Africa, scattered moderate to heavy showers fell across the region over the last few days, benefiting planting and early establishment, especially across the east. Significant rainfall deficits exist across Morocco. Showers are coming back into eastern areas, while holding off until the weekend for the west. The showers could be drought-easing, though.

WEEKEND AUSTRALIA SHOWER FORECST

In Australia, recent showers were largely absent for much of New South Wales and Queensland, putting stress on developing cotton and sorghum as temperatures climbed well into the upper 30s and lower 40s Celsius. Scattered showers will develop across these areas on Thursday and continue through the weekend, bringing beneficial rainfall to much of the area.

SOUTH AFRICA SHOWERS

In South Africa, scattered moderate to heavy showers continue to benefit developing corn and sugarcane. Showers will continue to be in the area through the next week.

FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST ASIA PATTERN

In Malaysia and Indonesia, recent and forecast showers have been adequate for palm oil prospects as monsoon showers continue.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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