Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drier Argentina Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A drier forecast for central Argentina and improved world winter wheat moisture are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

EASTERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate to heavy rain across the eastern Midwest during the next two days. This rain will disrupt harvest. Western Midwest areas will have a warmer and drier pattern with more favorable harvest and fall fieldwork conditions in the seven-to-10-day time frame.

SOUTHEAST PLAINS RAIN

The stormy pattern in the Southern Plains has another day left in its life cycle with moderate to heavy rain for the southeastern Plains. Beneficial precipitation for winter wheat has occurred during the past five days in some high-production areas of south-central Kansas throughout Oklahoma and northern Texas.

MILDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas continue with a warmer and drier forecast through early November. This change is favorable for harvest and fall fieldwork along with easing livestock stress.

HEAVY DELTA RAIN IMPACT

Delta and Southeast crop areas had heavy rain from the Hurricane Zeta system during the past two days, along with wind and storm surge damage in coastal areas. Cotton quality has been damaged and cotton harvest has a notable delay due to the storm. The year 2020 has been a record year for tropical storms in the mainland U.S.

ADDITIONAL CENTRAL BRAZIL RAIN

Central Brazil crop areas have additional occurrences of moderate to heavy rain forecast during the next week. This rain will offer additional improved soil moisture for soybean planting and development. Meanwhile, southern Brazil has only light showers in store. This bears watching for further into the crop year.

LIMITED ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina has only light rain ahead during the coming week. Soil moisture has had favorable recharge from recent moderate to heavy rain. However, the drier trend will bear watching. The La Nina sea surface temperature event in the Pacific Ocean has a high relationship to drier crop year precipitation in central Argentina.

FAVORABLE RAIN FOR RUSSIA

Russia wheat areas continue with a promising round of moderate to heavy rain in the five-day forecast. This would be the best moisture for wheat areas in the past three months and would be useful for wheat ahead of the crop's dormancy phase.

BENEFICIAL AUSTRALIA PATTERN

Australia wheat areas have periods of rain through the next week in store. Heavy amounts are indicated in southeast crop areas. The rain will bring on some disruption to harvest. Harvest is in its final stages in Queensland and is underway in northern New South Wales. Yields are reportedly positive. Western Australia wheat harvest is also reportedly underway.

FAVORABLE SOUTH AFRICA PATTERN

South Africa corn planting has favorable weather with periods of showers and mild weather. Corn planted acreage is reportedly expected to expand in the 2021 season, with a 5% increase in planted area predicted.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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