USDA Reports Summary

USDA Lowers Soybean Ending Stocks, Trims Production

USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports at 11 a.m. CDT Friday, Oct. 9. (Logo courtesy of USDA)

This article was originally posted at 11:01 a.m. CDT. It was updated at 12:40 p.m.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Friday released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

USDA lowered soybean ending stocks for the 2020-21 marketing year to 290 million bushels (mb), a 170 mb decline from September that was just slightly above the lowest pre-report estimate. USDA also trimmed production forecasts by 45 mb, lowered beginning stocks by 52 mb and increased exports by 75 mb.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Friday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, bullish for soybeans, while the world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, bullish for soybeans and bearish for wheat.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

SOYBEANS

Total production, at 4.268 billion bushels (bb), is based on a record high 51.9 bushel per acre (bpa) national average yield. That's 45 mb lower than USDA's September forecast due to a 0.7 million acres reduction in harvested acres with most of the reduction in Kansas, North Dakota and South Dakota.

USDA pegged U.S. ending stocks for the new-crop (2020-21) marketing year at 290 mb, a 170-bushel decline from September. In addition to changes in production, USDA lowered beginning stocks, which is also 2019-20 ending stocks, by 52 mb. The report left soybean crush unchanged while raising exports by 75 mb. Residual use declined by 2 mb.

That national average farm-gate price, at $9.80, is 55 cents higher than last month's forecast.

Domestic old-crop ending stocks, at 523 mb, are down 52 mb from last month due to a substantial change in the residual use category. In September, USDA counted 45 mb of residual use, but it increased to 16 mb in October.

Globally, new-crop ending stocks reflected changes to the U.S. balance sheet, declining to 88.7 million metric tons (mmt) from last month's 93.59 mmt estimate. USDA said the decline was partly due to lower beginning stocks, which reflects higher crush demand in China that was partly offset by lower exports and higher stocks in Brazil.

CORN

Old-crop corn ending stocks for 2019-20 were dropped 258 mb to 1.995 bb. With those lower beginning stocks, USDA also ended with lower corn ending stocks for 2020-21, which USDA dropped 336 mb to 2.167 bb. Production was pegged at 14.722 bb, down 178 mb from the September report.

Corn yields were adjusted ever so slightly to 178.4 bpa, down from 178.5 mb in last month's report. Harvest acres were also cut by 1 million acres down to 82.5 million acres.

For crop demand, USDA lowered feed and residual use by 50 mb to 6.475 bb. Ethanol demand was also lowered by 50 mb to 5.05 bb. Export demand was held at 2.325 bb, the same as September.

Total use was pegged at 14.575 bb, a 100 mb drop from the September report. With ending stocks at 2.167 bb, that dropped the stocks-to-use ratio for corn down to 14.8%, compared to 17% just a month ago.

The average farm price for the 2020-21 corn crop was pegged at $3.60 a bushel, a dime above last month's estimate.

Globally, USDA also lowered 2020-21 beginning stocks 4.91 mmt and lowered global production 3.56 billion bushels as well. Exports were lowered 1.56 mmt as well. Collectively, that dropped the global ending stocks down 6.34 mmt for September to 300.45 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA lowered yield slightly for wheat to 49.7 bpa, down from 50.1 bpa in last month's report. Beginning stocks for 2020-21 were lowered 16 mb to 1.028 bb. Production was also lowered 12 mb to 1.826 bb.

Domestic use was increased by 10 mb, driven by higher feed and residual use. Wheat exports remained at 975 mb due to offsetting by-class changes.

Wheat ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop were lowered 42 mb to 883 million bushels.

World wheat production saw Russia's production bumped up 5 mmt to 83 mmt. Ukraine and Canada also reported lower production estimates. Global production was increased 2.59 mmt. Exports remained relatively on par with last month's report. Global wheat ending stocks for 2020-21 were increased 2.08 mmt to 321.45 mmt.

The U.S. farm gate price for wheat was raised 20 cents a bushel to $4.70 a bushel.

LIVESTOCK

USDA increased expected beef supply projections to 27.2 billion pounds, an increase of 90 million pounds from September estimates. Total use of beef is expected to increase by 255 million pounds during the month of October to 27.7 billion pounds. Pork supplies are estimated to decrease 80 million pounds during the month of October to 28.2 billon pounds. Export expectations of pork decreased by 200 million pounds in the October estimate at 7.3 billion pounds, moving total use to 21.8 billion pounds, based on increased domestic disappearance in the market. Estimated steer prices increased to $108.71 per cwt compared to September projections of $107.3 per cwt. Barrow and gilt prices posted the most significant projected price increase moving to $43.25 per cwt in Octobers estimate from September's target of $39.40 per cwt.

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Editor's Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Friday, Oct. 9, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://dtn.webex.com/…

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2020-21
Oct Avg High Low Sep 2019-20
Corn 14,722 14,801 14,963 14,638 14,900 13,617
Soybeans 4,268 4,292 4,358 4,249 4,313 3,552
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2020-21 (WASDE)
Oct Avg High Low Sep 2019-20
Corn 178.4 177.6 179.2 175.4 178.5 167.4
Soybeans 51.9 51.7 52.5 51.2 51.9 47.4
U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2020-21
Oct Avg High Low Sep 2019-20
Corn 82.5 83.3 83.5 82.7 83.5 81.3
Soybeans 82.3 82.9 83.0 82.5 83.0 75.0
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2020-21
Oct Average High Low Sep
Corn 2,167 2,130 2,333 1,882 2,503
Soybeans 290 360 436 285 460
Wheat 883 889 915 835 925
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2020-21
Oct Avg. High Low Sep
Corn 300.5 299.7 305.0 295.5 306.8
Soybeans 88.7 90.9 93.1 88.1 93.6
Wheat 321.5 316.9 319.0 310.9 319.4