USDA Reports Flash

USDA Expects Record Corn Crop

USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports at 11 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Aug. 12. (Logo courtesy of USDA)

This article was originally posted at 11:02 a.m. CDT. It was updated at 11:22 a.m.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA expects farmers to harvest a record 15.3 billion bushels (bb) of corn this fall, with a national average yield of 181.8 bushels per acre (bpa), which is also a record, according to its first Crop Production report of the season.

Soybean production is estimated at 4.42 bb with a record national average yield of 53.3 bpa.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Wednesday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, bearish for soybeans. Meanwhile, the world ending stocks estimates were neutral-to-bullish for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA expects farmers to harvest a record 15.3 bb of corn this fall, up 12% from last year. The national average yield estimate of 181.8 bpa is also a record, according to its first Crop Production report of the season. Both estimates are within the range of pre-report expectations.

That puts ending stocks for the 2020-21 crop marketing year at 2.76 bb, up from last month's 2.65 bb estimate and toward the high end of pre-report expectation. The ending stocks estimate reflects the 278 million-bushel (mb) increase in production, a 20 mb increase in beginning stocks, a 75 mb boosts to feed and residual usage and exports.

USDA pegged the average farm-gate price declined by a quarter from last month to $3.10 per bushel.

Ending stocks for the old-crop (2019-20) marketing year came in at 2.29 bb, a 20 mb increase. The national average farm-gate price was pegged at $3.60 per bushel.

Global ending stocks for 2020-21 reflect higher U.S. production with USDA raising its estimate to 317.5 million metric tons (mmt), up from 315 mmt in July.

SOYBEANS

At 4.425 bb, soybean production came in under the record crop of 2018-19 by just 3 mb. USDA did bump soybean yield to 53.3 bpa, up from 47.4 bpa last year and above pre-report expectations. If realized, that would be a record high soybean yield, above the previous record of 52 bpa in the 2016-17 season.

The bearish news continued with U.S. new-crop ending stocks, which were bumped up to 610 mb, up from USDA's estimate of 425 mb in July. This was largely driven by the increase in production, which offset a 75 mb increase in projected exports and 20 mb increase in soybean crushings. Old crop soybean ending stocks were trimmed to 615 mb, down 5 mb from July's estimate.

Average farmgate soybean prices for new-crop soybeans dropped to $8.35 per bushel, down from $8.50 in the July report.

Globally, new-crop world ending stocks also bumped up slightly to 95.36 mmt, up from 95.1 mmt in July, on the lower end of pre-report analyst projections. Old-crop world ending stocks also came in lower than expected at 95.85 mmt.

Brazil old-crop soybean production was left at 126 mmt, but USDA trimmed Argentina production from 50 mmt to 49.7 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA estimated all-wheat production at 1.84 bb, up 1% from last month's 1.82 bb. Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.2 bb, a slight decrease from July, with a national average yield of 51.1 bpa. Hard red winter wheat production came in at 695 mb, down 15 mb from last month; soft red winter wheat at 277 mb, down 3 mb; white winter wheat at 226 mb, down 1 mb; durum at 61.8 mb, up 5.8 mb; and other spring wheat at 577 mb, up 27 mb.

Domestic ending stocks for the 2020-21 season, at 925 mb, declined 17 mb from last month's 942 mb estimate. USDA lowered its forecast for imports by 10 mb and food use by 4 mb. It increased the export forecast by 25 mb.

The national average farm gate price declined by a dime to $4.50 per bushel.

Globally, USDA continued trimmed new-crop world wheat production to 766.03 mmt, with lower production in the EU, slightly offset by increased production in Russian and Brazil. That remains a record for world wheat production, nonetheless. With global use down more than supplies, new-crop world ending stocks jumped to record levels of 316.8 mmt, above pre-report analyst expectations.

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Editor's Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, Aug. 12, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://dtn.webex.com/…

U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2020-21
AugAvgHighLowJul 2019-20
Corn15,27815,16315,33014,81515,000 13,617
Soybeans4,4254,2784,4994,1504,135 3,552
All Wheat1,8381,8321,8561,7951,824 1,920
Winter1,3041,2151,2321,1931,218 1,304
HRW695710720700710 833
SRW277279295270280 239
White274228235224227 232
Durum6257615556 54
Other577560574550550 562
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2020-21 (WASDE)
AugAvgHighLowJul 2019-20
Corn181.8180.3182.5177.5178.5 167.4
Soybeans53.351.453.050.049.8 47.4
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20
AugAvgHighLowJul
Corn2,2282,2632,3882,1502,248
Soybeans615615640578620
Wheat1,0441,0361,0459351,044
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2020-21
AugAverageHighLowJul
Corn2,7562,7953,2062,4602,648
Soybeans610527689440425
Wheat926946976899942
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2019-20
AugAvgHighLowJul
Corn311.3312.5314.0311.0311.9
Soybeans95.998.6100.394.899.7
Wheat300.9296.8299.2292.0297.1
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2020-21
AugAvg.HighLowJul
Corn317.5320.4340.1312.0315.0
Soybeans95.498.2111.793.095.1
Wheat316.8313.5316.6308.2314.8