Commodities Market Impact Weather

Storms for Midwest

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Thunderstorms with useful rain to cover the Midwest and periods of rain for most Australia wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

HEAT AND RAIN FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for periods of rain this week in the Midwest. Showers during the past weekend missed much of the dry parts of Iowa, but heavier rain moved through the Eastern Corn Belt as conditions cooled back closer to normal for much of the region after stressful heat Saturday through late Sunday. The cool front will continue to cause moderate showers near the Ohio River back through Missouri and into southern and western Iowa on Monday and a system will sweep through the region Tuesday into Wednesday with more widespread moderate showers, benefiting much of the region. Scattered showers may linger across the southern half of the region, and maybe into western Iowa as well, through the remainder of the week. With showers being scattered, there will be places that are missed but many of the recent dry spots will see meaningful rainfall through Friday before the ridge firms up and the heat returns for the coming weekend.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

A more active weather pattern is in effect in the Southern Plains. Portions of Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska have seen good showers over the weekend while others remained dry. Showers have been beneficial for developing corn and cotton in the region where they have occurred, but have been notably absent for much of West Texas where heat has continued to put increased demand on irrigation. Scattered showers will continue over northern sections of the region as a front lingers and systems scrape by this week. Otherwise only isolated showers are expected over the dry south and heat will build back into at least the southern half of the region by this weekend.

NORTHERN PLAINS STORMS

In the Northern Plains, heavy and severe thunderstorms moved through the eastern half of the region on Friday, especially for eastern North Dakota and northeast South Dakota, likely causing some damage to heading to filling wheat and pollinating corn. Where damage did not occur, the rainfall, in excess of 1 inch for many, was beneficial to the crop. Scattered showers will continue every couple of days as the storm track is through the region for the next 10 days, overall beneficial to crops though severe weather will continue to be a threat.

MIXED DELTA AND SOUTHEAST RAIN

Delta and Southeast crop areas have continued mixed rainfall. Northern portions of the region did see good rainfall on the order of 0.50-2 inches during the past weekend; but, with both soybeans and cotton in reproductive phases, more moisture will be needed as temperatures remain in the 90s Fahrenheit through the week and likely increase a bit further this weekend.

SCATTERED PRAIRIES SHOWERS

Canadian Prairies crop areas had scattered showers during the past weekend. Overall, favorable conditions continue for much of the region, except for central and northern Alberta where soggy soils and lower temperatures have stunted growth. With the storm track through the region, scattered showers will continue to push through every couple of days, benefiting heading to filling wheat.

MAINLY DRY IN RUSSIA

In the Black Sea region, rainfall is most likely in western Ukraine. Most other crop areas will be dry, including Russia. Dryness favors winter wheat harvest but is unfavorable for spring wheat and for row crops.

EASTERN EUROPE RAIN FOCUS

Across Europe, showers will continue in central and eastern Europe with favorable moisture for reproductive crops.

ADDITIONAL BRAZIL DRY HARVEST OUTLOOK

In central Brazil, a continued dry pattern for safrinha corn harvest is in the forecast through the next week.

POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

In central Argentina, showers were noted in Buenos Aires over the past weekend. Other interior crop areas were mainly dry. Showers will spread over southern growing regions early in the week, then over northern areas by the end of the week, bringing much-needed showers for developing wheat. However, behind the showers will be temperatures that again fall below freezing and much of the shower activity will be too light to reverse recent dryness.

MIXED AUSTRALIA RAIN

In Australia wheat areas, scattered rain occurred in Western Australia during the past weekend, but eastern areas were dry. Southern areas in the east remain with better soil moisture and irrigation reserves for developing wheat and rapeseed, but Queensland has seen far few showers over the last 30-60 days. While not concerning yet, showers would still be welcome. Queensland may have two shots at meaningful rainfall this week, which would ease concerns.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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