This article was originally posted at 11:07 a.m. CDT. It was updated at 11:21 a.m.
OMAHA (DTN) --- Coming in with lower-than-expected planting, USDA on Tuesday forecast the corn crop planted area at 92 million acres, down nearly 5 million from the March forecast, while estimating soybean acreage at 83.8 million acres, slightly above the March forecast.
USDA on Tuesday released the annual Acreage report for major crops, such as corn and soybeans, as well as the quarterly Grain Stocks report.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, USDA's acreage estimates are bullish for new-crop corn and soybeans, neutral for wheat, while the grain stocks estimates were bearish for corn and wheat, neutral for soybeans
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USDA stated all corn acres are planted at 92 million acres, which is up 3% from a year ago, but below the pre-report average by analysts at 95.2 million acres. USDA had forecast 96.99 million acres in the March Prospective Plantings report.
Compared to last year, planted acreage is expected to be higher or unchanged in 28 of 48 states in the estimate. USDA expects area harvested for grain will come in at 84 million acres, also up 3% from last year.
All estimates expected acreage to be higher than 2019, which saw nearly 20 million acres end up in prevented-planting insurance claims, mainly due to widespread flood events.
Soybean acreage comes in at 83.8 million acres, up 10% from last year. Analysts came in with a pre-report average for soybean at 84.76 million acres. USDA had projected 83.51 million acres in the Prospective Plantings report.
USDA stated planted acreage for soybeans is higher or unchanged in 24 of 29 states.
Wheat acres planted for 2020 were estimated at 44.3 million acres, down 2% from 2019. This marks the lowest all-wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Winter wheat areas are at 30.6 million, down 2% from last year. For spring wheat, planting is estimated at 12.2 million acres, down 4% from 2019. Of this total, 11.5 million acres are hard red spring wheat. Durum planting for 2020 is projected at 1.5 million acres, up 12% from last year.
PRINCIPAL CROP ACRES
For "all principal acres" planted nationally, the numbers do not rebound full from last year's 20-million acres of prevented planting. In 2018, all planted acres reached 319.3 million acres, but fell to 302.6 million acres. USDA came in for 2020 at 311.88 million acres. That still leaves nearly a 3.4% planted-acres gap between 2018 and 2020.
While all-crop acreage didn't return to pre-report levels, some crops saw sizeable increases in acreage. Sorghum plantings are expected to grow by 355,000 to 5.62 million acres. Oat acreage increased by 324,000 acres from last year's levels to 3.13 million acres. Barley and durum acres also increased by 177,000 and 161,000 compared to the prior year. Land sown to rye increased by 390,000 to 2.26 million acres. Rice acreage grew by 381,000 acres to 2.92 million. Peanut acreage climbed 87,000 acres to 1.5 million. All of these crops combined showed increased plantings totaling 1.88 million acres.
Sorghum: up 355,000
Oats: up 324,000
Barley: up 177,000
Durum: up 161,000
Rye: up 390,000
Rice: up 381,000
Peanuts up 87,000
QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS
USDA pegged total corn stocks as of June 1 at 5.22 billion bushels (bb), up less than 1% from last year, and on the high end of pre-report analyst estimates. Of those stocks, 3.03 billion are stored on farms, up 3% from last year. Off-farm stocks were pegged at 2.20 billion, down 2% from last year. For the period of March through May 2020, USDA put "disappearance" or usage, at 2.73 bb, compared with 3.41 bb during the same period last year.
For soybeans, USDA estimated total stocks as of June 1 at 1.39 bb, down 22% from last year, and within the range of pre-report analyst estimates. Of those, on-farm stocks totaled 633 million bushels (mb), down 13% from last year. Off-farm stocks were estimated at 753 mb, down 28% from a year ago. USDA pegged disappearance for the March through May at 869 mb down 8% from last year.
Old crop (2019-2020) wheat stored as of June 1, 2020 was pegged at 1.04 bb, down 3% from a year ago, and on the high end of pre-report analyst estimates. Of those, on-farm stocks were estimated at 232 million bushels, up 12% from last year. Off-farm stocks were pegged at 812 million bushels, down 7% from last year. The March through May disappearance was estimated at 372 mb, down 28% from the same period last year.
Editor's Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, June 30, for a look at what the day's numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://dtn.webex.com/…
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|ACREAGE (million acres)||USDA||USDA|
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