Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cooler and several chances for favorable showers the seven-day forecast for the Midwest, and some showers delaying the wheat harvest in the Southern Plains are key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for periods of showers to work across the region, albeit slowly, through Sunday. The showers should help drier soils in the west while maintaining adequate soil moisture in the east, where recent dryness is causing a concern for developing corn and soybeans. Another storm will move across the area early next week with much heavier precipitation for eastern areas.

SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Several periods of scattered moderate to heavy showers are expected across the central and Southern Plains through Sunday, benefiting corn but putting some delays in the wheat harvest. Showers may continue next week over the south, continuing the delays in the harvest.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, there's some stress to developing wheat due to the recent heat and dryness, though periods of showers will continue into Monday as a slow-moving storm system crosses the region, helping to maintain moisture in the areas where it occurs and helping to foster growth. Very good rainfall occurred Wednesday into Thursday for the eastern Dakotas.

SHOWERS NEXT WEEK FOR DELTA

In the Delta, dry weather has been the norm since Cristobal left early last week. Soil moisture is adequate to surplus in the region but with limited to no showers expected this week, soils may dry out and stress vegetative soybeans and cotton. The next chance for significant showers does not come until Monday, and looks to be scattered throughout the week.

PERIODS OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST

In the southeastern U.S., an upper-level system will produce periods of moderate rainfall mostly over the Carolinas through the week with drier conditions from Mississippi to Georgia. This could stress developing cotton in the area, though soil moisture appears adequate at this time. Isolated to scattered showers will pop up next week.

MORE SHOWERS FOR PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies crop areas had moderate rainfall across the region over the past several days, and severe thunderstorms occurred in Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan over the weekend. Adequate to excessive soil moisture continues in the west with improving soil moisture in the east, especially in Saskatchewan. A slow-moving storm will continue to bring periods of showers through the middle of next week, benefiting emerging crops.

SHOWERS IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA

Scattered showers have fallen across much of Ukraine and Russia over the past several days, including the drier areas in both countries. Despite some areas of flooding, the showers were welcome, as recent heat has dried soils, hurting the remaining filling wheat and summer crops. Periods of showers will continue for portions of Ukraine and southern Russia but heat will again build into the region through the weekend. Areas of eastern Ukraine and central Russia, where showers look to be more limited, will likely see more stress, but mostly just to summer crops from this point forward as wheat is getting past the point where heat is a detriment.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN EUROPE

Scattered showers fell across much of Europe over the last week and were moderate in a zone from the Netherlands through Bulgaria/Romania with some flooding. Scattered showers look to continue through the weekend, mostly in that same zone. Heat has been tempered by showers. Where showers did not occur, temperatures will rise above normal. Southern areas could stand to see less rainfall to allow wheat to dry down and harvesting to take place. After several weeks of continued showers in the east, too much rain is limiting sunlight for developing summer crops. Drier and warmer weather looks to come back into the continent next week.

SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

In Brazil, the growing season is just about over for most of the region and the continued dry conditions will have less of an impact. Most of the wheat areas in the south are in good shape, as showers continue over Rio Grande do Sul into next week.

VARIABLE MOISTURE FOR ARGENTINA

In Argentina, showers that occurred on Wednesday, although moderate, were likely not enough and stress to emerging wheat may be occurring. While showers will be likely for northern and eastern areas, western and southern areas will see limited rainfall chances over the next week.

SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

In Australia, scattered moderate showers that fell in the west on Wednesday will continue across the majority of the east on Friday through Sunday.

Soil moisture and irrigation reserves are both adequate to continue favorable growing conditions for wheat.

FAVORABLE CHINA CONDITIONS

Overall favorable conditions are found in northeast China for corn and soybean growth. Drier weather over the central areas will benefit wheat and rapeseed as harvest will start up soon. Showers in the south continue to be beneficial for developing sugarcane and rice.

INCREASING INDIA RAIN

Harvesting of winter wheat and rapeseed in the northwest portion of India has favorable conditions. Rainfall continues to increase across the country as the monsoon builds in the region. This is beneficial to all areas for prepping soils for planting and for early growth. An outbreak of locusts has migrated into western India. Extensive damage has been reported for the early cotton and winter wheat crops. The swarm is starting to devastate newly planted summer crops, including cotton.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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