Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Dryness in central and southern Brazil, limited rain in Argentina, and slow drying conditions in the Midwest, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

SLOW MIDWEST DRYING

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for temperatures averaging above normal for the next 10 days to help with snowmelt and drainage in many areas, though a strong system will bring more widespread moderate precipitation early next week. Additional periods of precipitation, mostly rain, will occur the rest of the week. Slow drying conditions continue.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN NEXT WEEK

In the Southern Plains, mostly dry weather is expected through Saturday. Winter wheat that has broken dormancy could use more precipitation in western portions of the region. A system early next week could produce more moderate widespread precipitation, but looks to miss the drier areas. Additional rain will occur next week, but mostly over eastern areas.

MILD FOR NORTHERN SNOWMELT

In the Northern Plains, above-normal temperatures through the weekend will allow steady snowmelt and excess soil moisture drainage. Some precipitation is expected through Thursday, but looks to be minimal for most areas. A return to harvest may be possible for some areas, though very wet conditions will continue for those areas that still need to be harvested. A stronger system early next week looks to miss the region for the most part with some nuisance precipitation through the rest of the week.

DELTA TO STAY WET

The Delta continues to have rain in the forecast. Moderate rain over southern areas will exit early Thursday, keeping soils wet and limiting fieldwork. Dry weather over the weekend could allow some fieldwork to be done, mostly over northern sections that missed out of the midweek storms. Another strong storm could bring additional moderate-to-heavy rain to the area early next week, followed by periods of rainfall through the rest of the week. Soils do not have much time to dry out next week.

MINIMAL BRAZIL RAIN

Southern Brazil expects very little rainfall for filling soybeans and could cause some damage in Rio Grande do Sul, but conditions are better in Parana. Farther north, a zone of scattered showers and thunderstorms will push just north of the major growing areas through this weekend, allowing the soybean harvest to wrap up. Northeast areas will get some showers this week. It is too late for the damaged soybean crop, but will benefit second-crop corn (safrinha) development.

MORE ARGENTINA DRYNESS

Argentina will have mostly dry conditions with above-normal temperatures stressing filling corn and soybeans for the remainder of this week. Showers are possible late in the weekend to early next week. They could be moderate to locally heavy but look to be very hit-or-miss in coverage.

WARM TREND IN BLACK SEA REGION

Russia and Ukraine have above-normal temperatures for the next 10 days. Soil moisture is still below normal in many areas of Ukraine, but there does appear to be several chances for meaningful precipitation in these areas in the forecast. This is important as the winter crops have likely broken dormancy.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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