DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This is producing cool/cold temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A trough over the Rockies and Plains extending into the Midwest states. A ridge in the eastern U.S. and southwest atlantic and a trough in the northwest atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over eastern Cuba.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair-poor agreement days 8-10. We are going with the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada and a trough over northeast Canada and Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Disturbances will eject from the trough in the western U.S. moving along the boundary zone between the cooler air to the west and warmer air to the east which will be over the central U.S. This will be an active precipitation pattern for much of the central U.S. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east during the next 5 days, near to above normal in all areas days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...90 AT FALFURRIAS TX

LOW TUE...41 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…PADUCAH KY 2.71 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair to good agreement only for the first day or two of the outlook period, fair to sometimes poor agreement after that. I favor the European model today.

Today's US model features an intensifying surface storm tracking from Kansas east-northeast across the western and northern Midwest and into the Great Lakes region next Tuesday and Wednesday. Behind this storm the US model features a strong Arctic type high pressure moving southward over the northern plains and then into the northwest Midwest. This combination would, if verified, mean a major blizzard over the northeast plains and northwest Midwest followed by a sharp turn to much colder weather. The European model features a somewhat weaker storm moving a little further south through the south and east Midwest during this time period. No sign of the strong Arctic high on this model at that time. The European model does show a secondary low moving over the western Midwest and the northwest Great Lakes region at the end of the period with a moderate to somewhat strong Arctic high mainly in the Canadian Prairies. This is the preferred solution today. However, there is some uncertainty in this outlook.

The mean maps at 8-10 days continue to feature upper level ridging and above normal heights over the northeast Pacific, the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska but this ridge does not look quite as strong as it did yesterday. We note a significant trough digging southward over the western US at this time while the Gulf of Mexico ridge builds northward through the southeast US and almost to the middle Atlantic region. This suggests that the bias during the extended range would be to dump the coldwest weather southward over the western US while the east remains relatively warm. There is a weak to somewhat moderate trough in north-central and northeast Canada on these maps. This might allow the cold in western North America to moves further to the east in Canada and the north-central US region than in the south-central and east US areas during this time frame. As we mentioned yesterday the contrast between the cold west and warm east and the influx of Gulf moisture on the back side of the building southeast US ridge is likely to mean widespread and heavy precipitation from the south and east-central plains through the Delta, the south and east Midwest area during the 6-10 day period. It may also mean above normal precipitation elsewhere in the central and south plains and western Midwest areas and where the cold interacts with the warm and moist flow there is likely to be a major snow event. Where this occurs and when is somewhat difficult to call today but I would estimate that somewhere between the Kansas area and the western Midwest is at risk of a heavy snow event next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): A moderate upper level ridge is expected shift into RGDS during the next few days. This is likely to mean drier and hotter weather developing for a brief period. The models suggest that the ridge will not stay around too long but it will bear watching. As the ridge builds over southern Brazil it is likely to mean increasing rain chances in the center-west region of Brazil. This might mean some delay in the harvest of soybeans and planting progress for cotton and safrinha corn, especially later this week and this coming weekend.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Heavy thunderstorms with strong winds developed over Cordoba province during the night. This system weakens somewhat as it moves over Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires today and Thursday. A mostly beneficial rain event, following the heat of recent days. However, still not sure how much rain and at what coverage for Santa Fe crop areas. Showers in southern areas will continue the next day or two, mainly central and east areas and not as heavy as the Cordoba activity was yesterday. Cooler weather in this area works its way slowly eastward.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Colder weather returns to the region this week but not cold enough to cause problems for winter wheat or to be very stressful to livestock. Rain and snow in southern areas maintains favorable soil moisture in this portion of the wheat belt. Snow may mean some concern for livestock in the feed lots but the heaviest activity is mainly south and east of the major feed lots of the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas. Also increasing precipitation and potential cold weather during the 6-10 days is some risk to livestock while continuing to improve moisture in wheat wheat areas.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): Rain and snow this week will maintain conditions too wet in southern and eastern areas. We may also see some delay to travel and transport in areas of heaviest snow. Next week the rain or snow may become more widespread and heavier in the region. See the above discussion. If verified this is likely to increase concern, again, about spring planting delays.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): No significant storms or cold weather during the next 5-7 days, although briefly cold at times. Longer range we may see more and colder weather for the region.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Conditions mostly favor developing to reproductive maize and sugarcane at this time, after recent rains and a variable temperature pattern. The crop belt may be somewhat hotter, somewhat drier, during the next 3-4 days. Increasing shower activity and cooler temperatures again after that. No significant concerns for crops at this time.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Winter time precipitation and no major cold snaps will mostly favor winter wheat and rapeseed. Northeast China is colder at this time but it appears this cold weather stays north of the winter wheat belt. There will be adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops areas from the southern North China Plain southward and mostly adequate soil moisture and irrigation through the northern North China Plain this spring. Also of note, increasing rain south of the Yangtze river should improve conditions for planting crops during the spring months.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Developing to early reproductive wheat and rapeseed will have benefited from significant rains that occurred during January. Light to moderate showers also occurred in Pakistan and northwest India early last week as well. This favors winter wheat in key growing areas in and around Punjab Pakistan and Punjab India. The weather pattern looks drier during the next week to ten days but not very warm.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): An active weather pattern has returned significant moisture to the Germany and Poland area during the past week, improving conditions for winter grains and oilseeds. Warmer temperatures mostly favors these crops but leaves them less winter hardy than is usually the case this time of year. No major cold snaps are indicated but seasonally cold weather may develop at times.

NORTHWEST AFRICA (WINTER WHEAT): Winter wheat has likely benefited an increase in rain and more seasonal temperatures during the middle of January. However, it appears likely that the region will be drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): No major cold weather threats during the next 7 to 10 days. However, seasonally cold weather is likely to return to the region for a time. There is also likely to be an increase in precipitation through southern and eastern areas. This could mean a significant risk for heavy snow in the region, improving the protective snow cover in wheat areas.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON, SORGHUM, SUGARCANE): Widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms occurred through east-central Australia during January. Improved conditions for developing crops but there is still a long way to go to end the drought. Following the extremes of the growing season, I am not sure whether this will matter much as it concerns the yield forecasts for these crops but it should at least stabilized crop yield forecasts. The summer crop areas of eastern Australia may see additional rains during the next 7 to 10 days. This is likely too late for cotton and sorghum but it may offer some benefit to sugarcane. It could also begin to improve soil moisture in some winter wheat areas but the earliest planting for wheat does not occur until April.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures near to below normal north, near to above normal south.

East: Light to moderate rain and some mixed precipitation through southeast to east-central areas during the past 24 hours. Light precipitation central and northeast areas during this time. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Snow and some freezing rain and rain in Missouri today. Heaviest snow southwest, central and northeast areas. Little elsewhere in the region. Mainly dry tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, a few degrees either side of normal tomorrow and Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Snow, up to 0.25 inch melted, through northern areas Saturday night into Sunday. A little light precipitation elsewhere in the region Sunday. Mainly dry Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday, above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Snow, freezing rain and rain today, tonight and early Thursday.

Precipitation totals 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier with the heaviest likely in southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Snowfall of 4 inches or more is most likely in southwest, central and northeast Illinois, north Indiana, south Michigan and far north areas of Ohio. Drier later Thursday. Mainly dry or with only a little light precipitation Friday. Temperatures average near normal north and west and above normal southeast today, mostly near normal tomorrow, near normal Friday.

Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation during Saturday. Snow north, showers or light rain south, during Sunday into Sunday night. Drier again Monday. Precipitation totals 0.25 inch or less during this period, heaviest northwest and southeast areas. Temperatures near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, above to near normal east, during this period. Precipitation is expected to average above normal south and east, near to above normal northwest.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Dry or with only a little light precipitation yesterday. Snow, freezing rain and some rain has developed in west and north-central Texas, southwest, central and northeast Oklahoma during the night. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal west, below normal northeast and east-central areas and above normal southeast yesterday.

Forecast: Snow, freezing rain and rain changing to snow through west-central, central and northeast Texas, south and east Oklahoma and southeast to east-central Kansas today. Precipitation totals 0.25-0.50 inch favoring northeast Texas, east Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. Snow of 4 inches additional mainly central and northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. Drier tomorrow. Dry or with only a little light precipitation Friday. Temperatures below or well below normal west and south and near to below normal northeast today, near normal north and below or well below normal south tomorrow, near normal north and central areas and near to below normal south Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Chance for some rain in southeast areas Sunday. Rain or showers and thunderstorms south-central and southeast areas Monday or Tuesday.

Little elsewhere in the region during this period. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above normal south and east and near to below normal northwest Sunday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Monday, below normal west and near to above normal east Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to well below normal west and north-central areas during this period, near to below normal northeast, above to near normal southeast. Precipitation above normal south and east, near to above normal northwest.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures near to slightly above normal in western RGDS, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring north and east areas today through Friday. Temperatures average above normal through western and southern RGDS during this period, mostly near normal elsewhere in the region.

Dry or with only a few light showers during Saturday. Scattered light to moderate showers north, drier south, during Sunday. Showers may linger in north and east Parana during Monday. Drier elsewhere in the region Monday.

Temperatures average above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered to widely scattered mostly light to locally moderate showers during the past 24 hours. Temperatures variable. Hot where skies were more clear during the afternoon hours.

Forecast: A few light showers with locally heavier today and Thursday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring Mato Grosso during Friday.

Temperatures average near normal during this period, although still possibly hot in local areas depending on cloud cover during the afternoon hours.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers Saturday and Sunday.

Scattered to widely scattered showers Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Moderate to very heavy thunderstorms were indicated in Cordoba province mainly during the night. These thunderstorms produce locally strong wind gusts. Showers and some rain has moved into northern Buenos Aires and Santa Fe early this morning. Temperatures were hot, highs 93 to 97F, ahead of this thunderstorm activity yesterday.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday will likely be heaviest over northern Buenos Aires and Cordoba. Light to locally moderate showers linger in the region during Friday. Temperatures average above normal north and east and near to below normal southwest today and Thursday, near to below normal west and above normal east Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring northern Cordoba, during Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal west and south areas, above to near normal northeast.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Showers, thunderstorms and some rain from northern and eastern La Pampa through southwest Buenos Aires yesterday or during the night. The heaviest activity appears to have been in western and central areas of the southern Buenos Aires area. Temperatures yesterday ranged from 83 to 97F, coolest in La Pampa where the cold front had moved through early in the day yesterday.

Forecast: Episodes of light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some locally heavier today and Thursday. The heaviest activity likely favoring central and eastern areas. Drier during Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal west and above normal east today and Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Please note, this will be my last forecast and discussion for DTN. It has been a honor and a privilege to offer my opinion on the impacts of the weather on crops and livestock for the company over the years.

Thank you and regards,

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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