DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over northwest Canada. A trough over northeast Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is producing cold/very cold temperatures across most of southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific. A migratory trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A broad trough over the western U.S. and southwest Canad and a ridge in the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Very strong subtropical high pressure is centered over the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the U.S. and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the outlook period. We are going with the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a series of weak ridges and troughs extending across Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures in western Canada, cold/very cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the interior western U.S. and a trough in the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. This will be a drier pattern for the central U.S. with the trough far enough to the least to limit the flow of gulf moisture northward. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 6 days, near to below normal days 7-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...87 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW MON...19 BELOW ZERO AT GLACIER PARK MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…COLUMBUS GA 2.02 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in good agreement early in the outlook period, fair to good agreement later in the period. I favor a blend between the models today. A short wave trough is expected to move across the Great lakes region and deepen over the northeast US during the first 1-3 days of the outlook period. Behind this trough a strong, 1045 mb, Arctic high pressure will move over the Midwest next Sunday and Monday. The high drifts east and weakens somewhat during Tuesday, especially using the European model. In either case much below normal temperatures move to cover the Midwest region while only skirting the central and south plains wheat belt later this weekend and early next week. Later in the period the upper level trough and surface high weakens. The end of the period features a much more disorganized upper level pattern. This is likely to mean much less cold weather and only minor precipitation chances for the US.

The European model mean map covering the 8-10 day period features a deep trough over the eastern US. This is bias towards day 8 as by day 10 this trough has lifted out of the region. The mean map also features weak ridging over the Rockies and western plains and a weak high latitude ridge over northeast Canada to the north of the southeast Canada/east US trough position. A new split trough is approaching the west coast of North America at this time. This suggests the colder anomalies will shift into the eastern US and then dissipate towards the end of the period. The precipitation chances are rather limited by this time.

The US model mean map at 8-10 days shows little remaining from the eastern US trough, weak or very weak troughs over the southern Midwest and over the southern Rockies. The polar trough is in northeast Canada. Underneath this trough we see above normal heights. There is a good deal of west to east flow on this map. This model suggests moderating temperatures over the US and southern Canada late in the 10 day period, especially in the west and in the plains. Also, little significant precipitation, except possibly in Texas and vicinity due to the southern Rockies trough.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): A new round of rain or showers and thunderstorms will move over RGDS during the next 2-3 days. This will further improve conditions for soybeans and full season corn, after prior dry and hot weather. Some tendency for hotter, drier weather in and near Mato Grosso and Goias during the next 5 days. Longer range outlooks suggest thunderstorm activity will pick up again during the 6-10 day period.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): Episodes of scattered showers and a variable temperature pattern mostly favors crops in Cordoba, Santa Fe, north and east Buenos Aires. La Pampa and west Buenos Aires continue to see periodic scattered thundershower activity and cooler weather mixed in with periods of hotter and drier conditions. Enough rain is occurring to maintain current yield prospects in these locations, maybe even improve prospects somewhat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Recent and forecasted rain and thundershowers favors winter wheat in southern and eastern areas.

West-central and northwest areas could still benefit from more rain or even snow at this point. Livestock in the feedlots of the southwest came under some stress due to light freezing rain late last week. No major concerns for livestock this week but Thursday-Friday system could bring mixed precipitation to the region briefly. No major cold weather threats as the Arctic highs head towards the Midwest, rather than the central and south plains wheat belt.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT, TRANSPORT): Another round of moderate or heavy rain south and east and snow northwest and north-central areas at the end of this week and this weekend. This maintains very wet conditions in the Midwest region and is concerning as we look towards the spring planting season. The Arctic high projected over the Midwest Sunday-Tuesday will need to be watched as it concerns potential impact to the northern part of the Soft Red Winter Wheat belt.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): No significant precipitation is expected during the next 7 days, although snow may occur in eastern areas. The region will see episodes of cold temperatures, possibly very cold at times. Increasing stress to livestock during periods of very cold temperatures can be expected.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Recent shower activity and cooler temperatures will have favored maize and sugarcane crops. However, a trend towards below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures this week will bear watching.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Winter time precipitation and no major cold snaps will favor overwintering crops at this time. There should be favorable moisture for the crops as they break dormancy in the spring.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Periodic rainfall and a variable temperature pattern favors developing to early reproductive crops in the region at this time.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): West-central and southwest Europe may see increasing rain activity later this week through early next week along with a turn to colder temperatures. Crops through southwest Europe will benefit from the added rainfall but may need to keep an eye on the colder weather. Crops in west-central and northwest Europe do not need any more precipitation at this time. The weather pattern is mostly neutral for these crop areas.

UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): No significant cold weather threats during the next 7 to 10 days.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered light precipitation favoring eastern and southern areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal.

East: A little light precipitation favoring west and north areas yesterday.

Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry today. A little light precipitation tonight through early Wednesday, favoring northern and eastern areas. Drier later Wednesday. Dry Thursday. Temperatures average above normal east and south and below normal northwest today, near to above normal east and south and below normal northwest tomorrow, below to well below normal Thursday.

Light to moderate precipitation with some heavier possible Friday into early Saturday. Snow is likely to occur north and west areas. A mix of rain and snow southeast areas. Heaviest precipitation in south and east areas. Drier later Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, well below normal Sunday.

East: Mostly dry today. Light snow northwest and a few showers southeast during Wednesday. Mainly dry Thursday. Temperatures average above normal today and Wednesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Thursday.

Rain or showers and thundershowers south and east, rain or rain changing to snow northwest, Friday into Saturday. Precipitation totals moderate to heavy.

Significant snow mainly northwest to far northeast areas. Drier during Sunday.

Temperatures average near normal Friday, above normal Saturday, below or well below normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average well below normal during the first few days of this period, near to below normal towards the end of the period. Precipitation is expected to average near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal west and south and near normal northeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Wednesday. Light to moderate rain or showers south and light rain or mixed precipitation east during Thursday. Temperatures average above normal south and east and near to above normal northwest today, near normal north and above normal south and east-central areas tomorrow, near to below normal Thursday.

Light to moderate precipitation through east and south-central areas during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to well below normal east and near to above normal west during the first few days of this period, near normal towards the end of the period. Precipitation near to below normal north and central areas, near to above normal south.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring northern and western Parana during the past 24 hours. Temperatures 88 to 96F in RGDS, 82 to 88F in Parana.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers today and early Wednesday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers in RGDS and southern Parana later Wednesday or during Thursday. A few light showers in northern Parana mainly during Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal north and near to above normal south today, near to above normal tomorrow, below normal south and near to above normal north Thursday.

Dry or with only a few light showers in Parana Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average below to near normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal south and near to below normal north Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers in MGDS yesterday. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal south, near to above normal north and east.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers today through Thursday.

Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Thursday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers may develop in east and north areas during Sunday.

Temperatures average above normal in Mato Grosso and Goias, near normal in MGDS.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers yesterday. Thundershowers have developed during the night and moved over northern Buenos Aires. This activity may be locally heavy. Temperatures averaged above normal. High temperatures 89-93F, hotter north Cordoba and north Santa Fe.

Forecast: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms during today into Wednesday. Drier Thursday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to below normal south and above normal north tomorrow, below normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier possible during the past 24 hours. The activity favoring western areas, including previously dry areas of La Pampa. Temperatures below normal. High temperatures only 73 to 83F yesterday.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring central and eastern areas today or during tonight. Drier during Wednesday. Dry Thursday.

Temperatures average above normal today, below normal Wednesday, well below normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Dry or with only a few light or very light showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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