DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over western Alaska. A ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over north-central Canada and a ridge over northeast Canada and western Greenland. This is producing cold temperatures in western Canada, variable central, mild in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the interior eastern U.S. A trough along the coast of the northeast U.S. and a ridge in the southwest atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over central Mexico and the northwest Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational run of the US and European models are in fair-good agreement during the outlook period. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak ridge to the north of Alaska. A trough over northern Canada centered over northwest Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across southern Canada.

The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending to the west coast of Canada and the northwest U.S. A low amplitude jet with embedded disturbances over southern Canada and the northern and central U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. It appears that systems will be moving fast enough in this low amplitude jet to limit precipitation in the central U.S. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal during the next few days, near to below thereafter. The northern Plains will see below to much below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation above normal during the next few days, near to below normal thereafter. The southern Plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW WED...5 AT PORPHYRY (LITTLE BELT MOUNTAINS) MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…DAYTONA BEACH FL 4.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement as it concerns the upper level pattern during the 6-10 day period today. The European model does features somewhat more precipitation over the western Midwest and somewhat less rainfall over the Delta than does the US model for the period. The US model is colder over the Dakotas and somewhat colder over the Midwest when compared to the European model. The European model also features somewhat warmer temperatures in the Delta and in the southeast US during the period. The models both show above normal temperatures over Texas, southern Oklahoma and through the southern and central Rockies mountain region.

The upper level charts feature a trough moving from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes region early in the period. This is actually a secondary trough to the one causing the powerful north plains blizzard during the short range period. This secondary trough is shown lifting north into eastern Canada later in the period. Another trough moves inland over western Canada and then over the northern Plains of the US at the end of the period. This new trough is likely the reason for the precipitation over the western Midwest shown on the European model 6-10 day outlook. However, since it is mostly on day ten is would be highly uncertain.

The mean maps at 8-10 days feature a strong trough over the northern Pacific, across the Gulf of Alaska and into the western coast of North America.

This is likely the source for the next trough shown moving inland late in the ten day period. So long as this mean trough is in the picture we need to be watching for any new strong storms over the north-central US area and the central Canada region. The mean maps feature a west to east flow through the central US and a mean trough near the east coast. The east coast trough is somewhat stronger on the US model. This is likely the reason for the somewhat colder look over the Midwest on the US model for the 6-10 day period. The colder look over the northern plains region is likely due to the models factoring in the expected snow cover.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Cloudiness and showers located off the northeast coast of the United States are associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure that is producing gale-force winds. This system is forecast to strengthen as a non-tropical low off the east coast of the United States during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for significant subtropical or tropical cyclone development through the end of the week while it meanders offshore of the United States. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring strong winds, coastal flooding, and rough surf to portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coasts through late week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA/BARLEY): Heavy precipitation totals, 2.00-3.00 inches, are likely to occur over Manitoba and western Ontario during the next 48 hours. This is likely to result in heavy or very heavy snow, especially in Manitoba. Strong winds develop as well leading to blizzard conditions. Travel, transport and harvesting will come to a standstill for an extended period. Hard freeze conditions during the next few days. Any immature crops may be at risk of damage. However this will firm the ground and make it easier for harvesting in areas away from the blizzard conditions, mainly west and some central locations.

NORTHERN PLAINS: A high risk for a major snow and wind event today and Friday with some lingering snow into Saturday. This includes the risk for blizzard conditions and very heavy snowfall, a foot or more. This will impact travel, transport and harvest progress. It may also mean crop lodging in areas of heavy snow and strong winds. Livestock is also at risk from this system. The hardest hit areas are expected to be in central and east North Dakota and possibly northeast South Dakota. Following the storm much colder temperatures will mean a growing season ending hard freeze.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Wet weather in the western Midwest is unfavorable for maturing crops leading to poor drying conditions ahead of the harvest. A significant risk for a season ending freeze in western areas at the end of the week would damage immature crops. Frost and a light freeze may also occur eastward to the Miss river. Chance for frost into Illinois later this weekend.

Showers in the eastern Midwest generally favors filling crops especially in Indiana and Ohio where conditions have been dry.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS: A turn to much colder weather is expected during the next couple of days, rain in eastern areas and southeast areas. Germination and early development of recently planted winter wheat will slow with the colder temperatures as a hard freeze develops through west and some central areas.

Some delay to planting progress in the east areas but nothing major.

MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL (SOYBEANS): More rain is needed to initiate widespread soybean planting. Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier favoring north and east areas during the past 24 hours. Showers remain mostly in north and east areas today but may settle back down into the central and southwest areas during Friday and Saturday. Some improvement in conditions for planting, especially north and east areas, but more widespread and heavier rainfall is needed. Despite the showers mentioned the rainfall levels may remain below normal.

ARGENTINA (CORN): Rain is needed in some areas to ensure favorable germination and early growth of corn and to encourage more widespread planting. Driest in western growing areas. The central and east areas may see some rain at times during the next 3-4 days. Improving conditions for planting corn. The west looks to continue drier.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER GRAINS): A warming trend continues during the next 10 days over the region, favoring germination and establishment of winter grains. A drier trend as well during this period. More rain is still needed to support favorable pre winter development, however recent rainfall has helped.

CENTRAL CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Dryness remains of much concern for key winter rapeseed areas near the Yangtze river. However, major winter wheat areas of the North China Plain have received much needed moderate to heavy rain since late last week. This will improve conditions for planting and early growth of this crop.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/SORGHUM/COTTON): There appears to be some chance for improving rainfall from northern NSW to southern Queensland during the next week to ten days. It is too late to help the drought impacted winter wheat crop in the area but it may help to improve soil moisture for sorghum and irrigation supplies for cotton, at least somewhat. West Australia wheat areas may also see some shower activity at times. The balance of the wheat areas remain drier during this period.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered light to locally moderate showers, favoring southern and eastern areas, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows yesterday. The afternoon highs were above normal north, below normal south.

East: Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers in western areas yesterday or overnight last night. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast:

West:

Days 1-3: Moderate to locally heavy rain or showers and thundershowers favoring northwest, south-central and east areas today into tonight. Dry or with only a little light precipitation northwest areas during Friday. A few snow showers north, fair central and south, Saturday. Temperatures average above normal east while the west turns colder during the day and at night.

Temperatures below or well below normal Friday, well below normal Saturday. The coldest low temperatures will likely be in the low 20s in central Nebraska, 26-32F elsewhere in the region. Freeze or hard freeze west, frost or light freeze east, by Saturday morning.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Sunday and most of Monday. Light precipitation favoring north and east areas Monday night or early Tuesday. Drier again later Tuesday.

Temperatures average below normal during this period.

East:

Days 1-3: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some heavier possible through Wisconsin and Illinois today or during tonight. Scattered light to locally moderate showers southern and eastern Illinois eastward through Ohio during tomorrow or tomorrow night. Mostly dry during Saturday.

Temperatures average above normal today, near to below normal west and above normal east Friday, below normal Saturday. Lows may dip into the low or middle 30s through western areas by Saturday morning, upper 30s to low 40s in the east.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Scattered to widely scattered light and locally moderate showers Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast during Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal early in this period, near to above normal late in the period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal, although there is a slight chance for near to above normal through southeast areas.

Northern Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Spring Wheat)

Summary: Light to moderate snow with some heavier from southeast Montana through the western Dakotas, heaviest appears to have been in parts of Montana and western South Dakota. The eastern Dakotas have see some rain yesterday which is changing to snow early this morning. High winds in some areas, especially strong winds through western South Dakota. Temperatures averaged below normal west and above normal east yesterday morning, below normal during the afternoon.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Moderate to heavy snow and wind through central areas and rain or snow east during Thursday and Thursday night. Strong winds and heavy snow from central and east North Dakota to northwest Minnesota during Friday and Friday night. Snow showers linger in eastern areas Saturday. Snowfall between the Thursday and Friday time period is likely to exceed 12 inches in central and northeast North Dakota and in Manitoba Canada. Snowfall 6-12 inches elsewhere in the central and east areas, into east in Minnesota. Precipitation totals 1.50-3.00 inches melted central and east North Dakota into northwest Minnesota and Manitoba Canada, 0.50-1.50 inches elsewhere in the east. Strong winds and heavy snow is likely to cause blizzard conditions in North Dakota and Manitoba, Canada Friday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Thursday, well below normal Friday and Saturday. Hard Freeze conditions west and central areas, freeze in the east. Lows colder than 28F through central and west areas, 28-32F through the east.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Sunday. Showers showers or light snow favoring north-central and east areas Monday. Drier again Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average well below for most of the period, especially over areas with deep snow cover. Near to below normal towards the end of the period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Light to moderate showers with isolated heavier in eastern areas yesterday or last night. Dry or with only a few light showers central locations, dry west, during this time. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast:

Days 1-3: Scattered moderate to heavy thunderstorms through southeast areas today into tonight. A little light precipitation north during this time. Mainly dry Friday and Saturday. Strong wind gusts today and Friday, diminishing Saturday. Temperatures turn sharply colder today, averaging well below normal tomorrow and Saturday. Hard freeze conditions can be expected through western areas southward into the Texas Panhandle, across southern Nebraska and in much of central Kansas. A frost or light freeze elsewhere in Kansas and north Oklahoma. Chance for frost in south Oklahoma and north-central Texas.

Days 4-6: Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers southeast, fair elsewhere in the region, during Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, below normal north and above normal south Monday and Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall near to below normal, except possibly near to above normal east-central and southeast areas.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Joel Burgio