Commodities Market Impact Weather

Mild Midwest Weather in Extended Outlook

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , Associate Managing Editor
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued mild conditions in the central U.S. forecast for the next 10 days, moderate to heavy rains in the Southern Plains and Midwest in the seven-day outlook, a dry-and-hot pattern delaying planting in central Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MILD MIDWEST WEATHER

The DTN Ag Weather forecast again calls for above- to much-above normal temperatures to favor corn and soybean development, which continue to run well behind normal in most areas. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor filling crops. An active pattern will set up generally from the Northern and Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this week into early next week, bringing periods of heavy rain. There are no signs of significant cold for at least the next 10 days.

ADDITIONAL NORTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Northern Plains, periods of showers and thunderstorms in the next five days will bring some new flood threat. Rain favors filling crops. Episodes of wet weather will continue to slow the harvest of spring wheat. Above- to much-above normal temperatures favor corn and soybean development which is running well behind normal in most areas. There is no sign of damaging cold for at least the next 10 days, although it may trend closer to normal after the next few days. Temperatures remain mild for late-planted crop development.

TROPICAL MOISTURE

Tropical Depression Imelda, with 30 mile per hour winds (mph), was 40 miles north-northwest of Houston at 4 a.m. CDT Wednesday. This was a storm as it made landfall. It is expected to weaken further as it moves northward through east Texas. Heavy rains are the main concern leading to severe flooding in east Texas and possible westernmost Louisiana.

Hurricane Humberto, with 115 mph winds, was located about 285 miles west of Bermuda at 5 a.m. AST today. This system is moving toward the east-northeast at 16 mph; Humberto will pass northwest and north of Bermuda on Wednesday. It should turn a little more to the north and then back to the east-northeast again Thursday through Saturday, passing southeast of Nova Scotia and south of Newfoundland before moving into the central Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Jerry, with 45 mph winds, was located about 960 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean at 5 a.m. AST Wednesday. It is moving towards the west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to be a hurricane as it passes just northeast of the Caribbean islands Friday and Saturday.

SCATTERED S. PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS

In the Central and Southern Plains, more rain would benefit winter wheat planting in some western areas. Wheat planting has begun in Colorado and Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms later in the five-day period and early in the six- to 10-day period will maintain more-favorable conditions for wheat in eastern locations and possibly in some southern locations. Heavy, organized rain is expected to focus across eastern Texas through the week, with significant rainfall and flooding a concern, particularly across the Houston area Wednesday and Thursday.

WET WEATHER IN PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, temperatures averaging above to near normal during the next seven to 10 days will favor late development of canola. Somewhat colder weather may develop beyond 10 days, but this is uncertain. Wet weather, especially in eastern areas, during the next five days will be unfavorable for early maturing grains and will slow harvest progress somewhat.

MORE BRAZIL HEAT AND DRYNESS

Brazil's crop areas continue with a dry-and-hot pattern through this week, delaying soybean planting. The weather is currently dry and extremely hot over Mato Grosso. High temperatures of 105 Fahrenheit or higher have been reported. There does not appear to be a break in this pattern within the next seven days, possibly longer. It is unlikely that farmers would plant under these conditions.

VARIABLE EUROPE RAINFALL

Dryness remains of concern in west and central Europe for planting and early development of winter grains and oilseeds. Dryness is also of some concern in southeast Europe due to a recent stretch of below-normal rainfall. Western Europe may see somewhat more showers during the next week to 10 days but perhaps not enough to offset current dryness concerns. Eastern Europe will be drier in the short-range forecast and wetter again in the long-range outlook, especially northeast Europe.

CONTRAST IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, there are dryness concerns in western and northern Ukraine following several weeks of dry conditions. Soil moisture for planting and early development of winter grains continues to diminish. The region is likely to see below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days. Temperatures are much lower this week, but may be higher again next week. Conditions for planting winter grains appear better in south and east Ukraine and South Russia. This area also turns much cooler or colder during the coming days.

WEAKER INDIA MONSOON

Monsoon rains are weakening over northwest India. This is a seasonal feature. Recent rains have been very favorable for crops, improving prospects for many summer crops in India. The rain also improved irrigation and soil moisture for planting winter wheat and rapeseed later this year. Rain is still possible into north-central and west-central India at this time.

SPOTTY AUSTRALIA RAIN

The east-central Australia area likely remains drier-than-normal for another five days. There is a chance rainfall may improve in the area during the six- to 10-day period. If verified, it would be too late to improve a drought-affected winter wheat crop, but could improve conditions for planting and early development of sorghum and cotton. The wheat in Western Australia is likely in good shape at this time. This region may be trending drier with time. Variable conditions for wheat exist in southern South Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria. Some wheat in these areas would be in good condition, some poor.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(CZ)

Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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