Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- More rain for Midwest, heat stress in Southern Plains and Delta, and a cool extended outlook, are key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST THUNDERSTORMS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms to help improve Midwest crop moisture conditions. The rain is useful for late-developing crops, with corn in the filling phase and soybeans still setting pods along with the pod-filling phase. Mid-summer dryness has increased stress to reproductive and filling corn and developing and filling soybeans from the central Iowa area eastward. Crop development remains well behind normal in many areas. An early fall freeze could do major damage to crops this year. Temperatures turn much lower at the end of this week, likely slowing crop development again.

COOLER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains will have generally favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans with mostly adequate moisture and no significant heat stress. Crop development is behind normal in most areas. An early fall freeze could do significant damage. Lower temperatures this past week and more cool weather this week will slow development. The spring wheat harvest may slow further during periods of showers this week.

MORE COOL WEATHER FOR PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies' crop areas will see showers and some rain favor late-filling crops in the region, but may be unfavorable for early maturing crops and any very early harvesting. Another upcoming round of cool or very cool weather will again slow development of the late-maturing crops. It does not appear that a hard freeze would occur with the colder weather moving in early next week, but at this time of the year any below- or well-below-normal air masses need to be watched. Crop development remains behind normal and a late-August or even early-September freeze could mean significant damage or quality reductions. This is especially the case as it concerns canola.

SOUTHEAST EUROPE HEAT

In Europe, hot, dry weather during July coincided with reproductive crops from France eastward to Poland. This likely means yield and production declines for corn, sunflower and soybeans. It is also likely corn was affected more than the other two crops, which may recover somewhat due to late-July and early-August rainfall. Southeast Europe saw high temperatures last week before cooling late in the week. This area has turned hotter again this week. There is some risk to late-filling crops due to hot weather, but these are favorable conditions for maturing crops.

DRIER, HOTTER IN BLACK SEA PATTERN

In the Black Sea region, it is likely to be drier and somewhat hotter during the next week to 10 days. Crops stages are filling to maturing at this time. There is some impact to late-filling crops, but it's mostly favorable conditions for maturing crops at this time.

HOT, DRY FOR SOUTHERN RUSSIA

Crops are currently in filling to maturing stages in Kazakhstan. Central and east areas had showers this weekend and Monday while the southwest turned drier and hotter. There's hot, dry weather over the southern Russia area, across the Volga valley and into the southern Urals and southwest Kazakhastan that may stress late-filling spring grains. However, most grains are beyond the point where this would cause more damage to an already poor crop. Damage was done by extreme heat and dryness that occurred during mid-summer when the crop was in reproduction.

POSSIBLE AUSTRALIA COLD SNAP

In eastern Australia, wheat approaching reproduction in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland needs significant rain to prevent further declines in an already poor wheat crop. The chance for this rain to occur remains low during the next seven days. Temperatures continue at below or well-below normal today through Thursday before moderating. Frost may have occurred Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with a slight chance for frost Thursday morning as well. Any wheat that has reached flowering stages may be at risk of damage if readings fall to 32 degrees Fahrenheit or lower.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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