Commodities Market Impact Weather

Dryness Grows in Midwest

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Growing dryness in the Midwest, and variable conditions in the international crop scene, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

EXPANDING MIDWEST DRYNESS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for Midwest temperatures to remain below normal through the next week. The cool pattern will ease crop stress, but also keeps crop development very late, with concerns widespread about crop maturity prior to the first autumn freeze. Precipitation will be limited in the recently dry areas of the central and eastern Midwest; drought development is forecast during August.

DROUGHT AND FLOODING IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, western and central areas have some flash drought conditions developing due to stressful heat and dryness. In eastern areas, heavy rain and severe storms will cause flash flooding and storm damage. The greatest impact will be in eastern Kansas.

LATE-DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS CROPS

Crop areas in the Northern Plains again have generally favorable crop conditions. However, seasonal to below-normal temperatures will keep crop development delayed compared with average. Crop progress is well behind average following extensive planting delays caused by a very wet spring. The region needs a late fall freeze to allow crops to fully develop.

COOL WITH RAIN IN PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies' crop areas will again have below-normal temperatures through the next week. Rainfall chances are higher in southern areas than we have seen recently; this includes some heavy flooding rain potential in the western sector of the region. Cool weather will keep crop progress slow in this late season. Some crops are as much as two weeks behind schedule, raising concerns regarding the timing of the first autumn freeze.

BENEFICIAL BRAZIL HARVEST PATTERN

Across Brazil, dry and hot conditions favor corn harvest progress. Wheat areas of southern Brazil had only light impact from a brief round freezing conditions (zero Celsius) during the past week.

SHOWERS FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Western, northern and eastern Europe crop areas continue with periods of rain forecast through the weekend. Southern Europe will be dry. Temperatures will be seasonal to above normal, warmest in the drier areas along the Mediterranean Sea.

BENEFICIAL RUSSIA TREND

Russia and Ukraine continue with favorable crop prospects. Summer crops have largely passed through the key reproductive stages of development without detrimental heat or moisture deficits and are now filling.

MIXED EASTERN RUSSIA PATTERN

Eastern Russia crop areas have a mixed weather prospect during the next week. Rain has eased drought in the west, while intensifying heat and dryness are noted in eastern and southern growing areas.

VARIABLE INDIA MONSOON RAIN

Monsoon rains continue in the forecast for north-central and west-central India through the balance of the week. Meanwhile, eastern crop areas are drier with only intermittent showers due to monsoon inconsistency.

MIXED TREND IN AUSTRALIA

Australia wheat areas have mixed conditions for vegetative stage wheat. More rain is needed in all areas.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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