Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Close attention to rainfall prospects in the eastern Midwest, and drier conditions for the Southern Plains wheat harvest, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

QUESTIONS ON MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for dry conditions through the end of the week across the Midwest. Seasonal to above normal temperatures will be featured, offering favorable growing degree day accumulation for crops in this delayed season. Forecast maps during the six-to-10-day time frame suggest a very warm to hot weather trend, with rainfall showing a sharp variability; above normal temperatures in the northwestern sector, and below normal in the east and southeast. This prospect will be closely watched. Southeastern Midwest areas could be recipients of tropical system rain from the Delta. The eastern Midwest has had below average rain over the past two weeks, so supplemental precipitation will be important.

GULF COAST CYCLONE

Tropical cyclone formation continues in the forecast through the end of the week in the central Gulf Coast. This system is likely to bring heavy, flooding rain to much of the Delta. Storm surge flooding is also likely in the immediate coast. The evolving system is expected to reach tropical storm status by Friday, to be named Barry. Barry may reach Category 1 hurricane level during the weekend.

FAVORABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS HARVEST PATTERN

In the Southern Plains, warm to hot weather and little rain will favor the wheat harvest during the next week. Summer row crop conditions are also favorable due to adequate soil moisture along with well-supplied irrigation sources.

MILD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains' conditions are expected to feature mild weather and periods of showers through the weekend. This pattern is favorable for crops. Additional showers are forecast through the middle of next week.

MIXED PRAIRIES RAINFALL

In the Canadian Prairies, northern and eastern areas will benefit from periodic showers and a variable temperature pattern during the next week to 10 days, although somewhat warmer weather on a consistent basis might be preferred. Southwest crop areas trend towards drier conditions again during this period and this is somewhat a concern.

DRYNESS IN EUROPE

Across Europe, the majority of crop areas remain dry. The 10-day forecast suggests that rainfall will be mostly below normal. Dryness remains a significant risk to crops.

BLACK SEA SHOWERS

In the Black Sea region, Russia and Ukraine continue with a forecast for lower temperatures and light-to-moderate rain. Crops will benefit from this combination.

VARIABLE INDIA MONSOON RAIN

India's primary crop areas continue with widely variable monsoon rains through the end of the week. Rains continue to bypass the west-central crop areas.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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