DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

July corn closed down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December corn was down 3 1/2 cents. July soybeans closed down 6 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 6 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1/2 cent, September Chicago wheat was up 1/4 cent and September Minneapolis wheat was up 2 cents.

The September U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.037 at 95.765. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 56.41 points at 26,593.23. August gold is down $5.30 at $1,410.10, July silver is down $0.11 at $15.19 and July copper is unchanged at $2.7135. August crude oil is up $0.06 at $59.44, August heating oil is down $0.0185, August RBOB is down $0.0217 and August natural gas is up $0.056.

Corn:

December corn ended down 3 1/2 cents at $4.51 Thursday, trading quietly lower as the market waits for Friday's Acreage and June 1 Grain Stocks reports from USDA, due out at 11 a.m. CDT. The big attention of the day will be on the planting estimate for corn where there is potential for a big price response, depending on what USDA says. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to estimate corn plantings at 87.0 million acres (ma) and June 1 corn stocks at 5.31 billion bushels (bb), roughly the same as a year ago (see "Drumroll Begins for USDA Planting Estimates" in Thursday's DTN). Thursday's weather map shows heavy rain in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa, but is mostly dry elsewhere. The seven-day forecast continues to look better for crop conditions with drier weather and higher temperatures expected. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales of corn totaled 11.6 million bushel (mb) and shipments totaled 27.4 mb, not enough to keep up with USDA's estimated pace. Even though demand has slowed lately, Friday's planting estimate is the more immediate concern for prices this summer. Technically, the trend in corn remains up with cash prices still not far from their highest level in five years. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $4.28 Wednesday, 16 cents below the July contract. Outside markets were mixed and mostly quiet Thursday after the U.S. Commerce Department said U.S. GDP was up 3.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, the same as estimated last month.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down 6 cents at $9.12 1/4 Wednesday, a third consecutive day lower as bullish traders show anxiety about Friday's USDA reports. According to Dow Jones' survey, USDA is expected to estimate soybean plantings at 84.6 ma, the same as earlier this month. June 1 soybean stocks are expected to total 1.856 bb, the most on record as ending stocks march toward a record high 1 bb by the end of August. The bearish elephant in the room for soybeans continues to be the lack of trade from the world's largest soybean buyer and leaders of the U.S. and China are planning to talk trade at this weekend's G-20 meeting in Japan. I can't say expectations are high for any trade progress, but we also can't ignore whatever news might come out as the topic is too important for soybean prices. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 6.2 mb and 26.6 mb respectively, less than the 30.8 mb of shipments needed each week to reach USDA's export goal. Aside from a bullish surprise in Friday's reports, the path of least resistance for soybean prices remains down with the U.S. surplus continuing to grow. Technically, the trend is up in cash soybeans, but prices are falling back from their one-year high at $8.41. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.20 Wednesday, down from its highest price in a year and 75 cents below the July contract.

Wheat:

September KC wheat traded higher early in the day, but closed down a half-cent at $4.81 1/2 on light volume. Friday's USDA reports don't have the dramatic potential for wheat prices that they do for corn or soybeans, but wheat prices will likely feel some influence from corn. Dow Jones' survey expects USDA to estimate 45.7 ma of all wheat plantings and 1.09 bb of June 1 wheat stocks, which will also be the ending result for 2018-19. Wheat prices got a little boost Monday from news of higher temperatures in Europe, but even though temperatures have stayed hot, December milling wheat in Paris has stayed steady since Monday, ending down 0.25 euro on Thursday. Among U.S. wheat prices, Chicago wheat has shown the largest gain from its low in May as SRW wheat conditions took the worst hit from this spring's wet weather. Now trading near its highest price in 2019, September Chicago wheat may be losing upward momentum as world wheat production still looks on track for a record high. The International Grains Council increased its world production estimate from 766 million metric tons (mmt) to 769 (mmt) (28.3 bb) on Thursday. Earlier, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 22.5 mb and 15.4 mb respectively, a neutral-to-bullish start for the new 2019-20 season. Technically, the trend is currently up for cash SRW wheat and sideways for HRW and HRS wheats. Spot Chicago wheat is now 14% above the spot KC price, its highest premium since 1979. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.52 Wednesday, down from its recent three-month high and 17 cents below the July contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.30, among its highest prices in four years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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