USDA Reports Summary

USDA Reduces Corn Production Estimate by 1.35 BB

USDA released its latest Crop Production and WASDE reports on Tuesday. (Logo courtesy of USDA)

This article was originally posted at 11:06 a.m. CDT. It was last updated at 11:18 a.m. CDT

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OMAHA -- USDA forecasts farmers will harvest 13.68 billion bushels of corn this fall with a national average yield of 166 bpa. That's a 1.35 bb reduction from last month and the lowest since the 2015-16 crop year.

USDA on Tuesday released its June Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

"Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects," the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report stated. USDA lowered its planted acreage forecast to 89.8 million acres, down from its March estimate of 92.8 ma. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28 with estimates derived from survey data.

USDA left soybean production estimates unchanged from last month at 4.15 bb with a national average yield of 49.5 bpa.

"Although adverse weather has significantly slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production forecasts are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season," the report stated.

Tuesday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. Tuesday's 2018-19 world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and bearish for wheat, he said.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

You can also access the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Corn production was pegged at 13.68 billion bushels, down 1.35 billion bushels from May's forecast. USDA lowered yield a full 10 bushels an acre to 166 bushels per acre.

With expectations of unplanted acres, USDA lowered planted acres to 89.8 million acres, down 3 million acres from USDA's earlier forecasts.

The result is dramatically lower supply and ending stocks. The 2019-20 ending stocks for corn were projected at 1.675 billion bushels, even falling below pre-report estimates, and 810 million bushels below May's forecast.

USDA raised old-crop ending stocks by 100 million bushels into the carryover for the 2019-20 crop because of a decline in 2018-19 exports by an equal amount. U.S. corn exports for 2019-20 were forecast at 2.150 billion bushels, also lowered by 125 million bushels compared to last month's forecast.

Total supply for 2019-20 was dropped to 15.925 billion bushels, down 1.235 billion bushels from May's WASDE.

In world production, Brazil production for 2018-19 was pegged at 101 million metric tons (3.97 billion bushels) a 1 mmt increase from May. Argentina production remained forecast at 49 mmt (1.9 billion bushels).

The average farm price for corn was pegged at $3.80 a bushel, a 50-cent bump up from last month's projected price of $3.30 a bushel.

SOYBEANS

USDA left 2019-20 (new-crop) soybean production unchanged from the May report at 4.15 billion bushels, down from 4.544 billion bushels last year. Planted acreage was also left untouched at 84.6 million acres, with projected harvested acres at 83.8 million acres. The agency left average yield for new-crop soybeans at 49.5 bpa, down from 51.6 bpa last year.

USDA bumped up U.S. ending stocks for old-crop (2018-19) soybeans to 1.070 billion bushels, up from 995 million bushels projected in May, and within pre-report expectations. That increase was mostly driven by a 75-million-bushel decrease in exports, based on the low number of shipments in May and China's lower import forecast. USDA did bump up soybean meal imports and exports for old-crop soybeans, but trimmed soybean oil used for biodiesel.

Driven by the rise in beginning stocks, USDA then increased new-crop (2019-20) soybean endings stocks to 1.045 billion bushels, up from May's estimate of 970 million bushels, and on the high end of analyst estimates.

The average farm-gate price for new-crop soybeans was pegged at $8.25 per bushel, compared to $8.50 per bushel for old-crop beans.

Globally, ending stocks for old-crop soybeans landed at 112.8 million metric tons, within pre-report analyst estimates. New-crop ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 112.66 mmt tons, also within analyst expectations.

USDA left Brazil's 2018-19 soybean production at 117 mmt, the same as the May report's estimate. Argentina's 2018-19 soybean crop also remained the same from May, at 56 mmt.

WHEAT

UDSA estimates all wheat production at 1.9 billion bushels, which was toward the high end of pre-report estimates.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.27 billion bushels with a national average yield of 50.5 bpa. USDA's forecast for hard red winter wheat production, at 794 million bushels, is up 2% from last month, while soft red winter wheat production declined 2% to 258 million bushels. White winter wheat production came in at 222 million bushels.

USDA pegged 2019-20 ending stocks at 1.07 billion bushels, a 69-million-bushel reduction, which accounts for a 25 mb reduction in beginning stocks (due to higher exports in the 2018-19 marketing year), a 6 mb increase in production and a 50 mb increase in feed and residual use.

The average farm gate price is estimated at $5.10 per bushel. Global wheat ending stocks for the 2019-20 marketing year were 294.34 million metric tons, an increase of 1.33 million metric tons from last month.

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Join DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman at noon CDT on Tuesday for DTN's post-report webinar where he will review USDA's estimates and answer your burning questions. Sign up for Tuesday's webinar at: https://dtn.webex.com/…

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019
Jun Avg High Low May
Corn 2,195 2,165 2,485 2,035 2,095
Soybeans 1,070 1,010 1,079 920 995
Wheat 1,102 1,113 1,128 1,077 1,127
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20
Jun Average High Low May Outlook
Corn 1,675 1,731 2,404 1,133 2,485 1,650
Soybeans 1,045 987 1,346 825 970 845
Wheat 1,072 1,115 1,180 1,025 1,141 944
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019
Jun Avg High Low May
Corn 325.38 323.6 328.4 314.0 325.9
Soybeans 112.8 113.1 115.4 107.4 113.2
Wheat 276.57 274.6 276.0 272.1 275.0
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20
Jun Avg. High Low May
Corn 290.5 301.60 315.00 285.00 314.71
Soybeans 112.7 114.70 136.20 108.00 113.09
Wheat 294.3 288.20 293.00 276.40 293.01
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2018-19
Jun Avg High Low May
CORN
Argentina 49.0 49.0 50.0 48.0 49.0
Brazil 101.0 99.8 102.0 96.0 100.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina 56.0 56.1 57.0 55.5 56.0
Brazil 117.0 117.0 118.0 116.0 117.0
WHEAT PRODUCTION (million bushels) 2019-20
Jun Avg. High Low M ay 2018-19
All Wheat 1,903 1,891 1,952 1,837 1,884 1,884
All Winter 1,274 1,255 1,316 1,194 1,268 1,184
Hard Red 794 766 816 662 780 662
Soft Red 528 263 286 252 265 286
White 221 228 252 215 224 236

(AG)