DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December corn was down 2 1/4 cents. May soybeans closed down 6 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents. May KC wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 2 1/2 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was up 3 cents.

The June U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.217 at 96.775. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 74.29 points at 26,082.87. June gold is down $19.10 at $1,294.80, May silver is down $0.34 at $14.90 and May copper is down $0.0360 at $2.8895. May crude oil is down $1.06 at $63.55, May heating oil is down $0.0213, May RBOB is down $0.0392 and May natural gas is down $0.039.

Corn:

May corn ended down 1 3/4 cents, right back to Monday's same close of $3.60 on Thursday. Corn prices still show no concern of early weather problems in 2019 after USDA estimated 2.035 billion bushels (bb) of ending stocks for the U.S. on Tuesday. Thursday's weather map showed heavy snow and high winds across the northern U.S. Plains, high wind advisories in the central Corn Belt, and flood warnings in eastern North Dakota. In addition, the seven-day forecast expects heavy rains around the Mississippi Delta, anchoring a wet outlook for the eastern half of the U.S. The extended forecast shows above normal precipitation for the entire Corn Belt. At some point next month, corn prices may show more concern about a possibility of prevented plantings in 2019, but with demand sluggish, it has not happened yet. Early Thursday, USDA said there were 21.6 million bushels (mb) of corn sold for export last week and 32.7 mb of shipments, but shipments remain well below the 50.8 mb needed each week to reach USDA's export estimate. Also early Thursday, Brazil's crop agency, CONAB, increased its estimate of Brazil's corn crop from 92.8 million metric tons (mmt) to 94.0 mmt (3.7 bb), less than USDA's estimate of 96.0 mmt. With corn exports dragging and more competition on the way from South America, the corn market is in a bearish mood. May corn futures continue to trade near their contract low, while cash prices are chopping sideways, near their one-year average at $3.38. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.38 Wednesday, priced 24 cents below the May contract and below its 100-day average. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.22 with unconfirmed talk that Germany may lower its estimate of GDP growth for 2019. Most non-ag commodities are trading lower with June gold down $19.10 and May crude over a dollar lower.

Soybeans:

May soybeans dropped 6 3/4 cents to $8.95 1/4 Thursday on lower volume, finding no bullish lift from USDA's weekly export sales numbers. After Wednesday's encouraging news that the U.S. and China agreed on an enforcement mechanism for future trade, USDA dampened the mood, reporting just 9.9 mb of soybean export sales and 32.7 mb of shipments for last week. The shipments are close to the 35.1 mb needed each week to reach USDA's goal, but total commitments are lacking, unless China wants to throw in some bonus sales with a new trade agreement. Brazil's CONAB slightly increased its estimate of Brazil's soybean crop to 113.8 mmt (4.18 bb) Thursday, a small disagreement with USDA's more bearish estimate of 117.0 mmt (4.30 bb). While conditions are favorable for Argentina's new soybean harvest, early spring weather here in the U.S. is not favorable for corn planting, which means more soybean are at risk of being planted in 2019. Fundamentally, the outlook for soybean prices is bearish, but there is still a possibility a trade deal with China could ease the bearishness. Technically, both cash and futures soybean prices continue to trade sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.18 Wednesday, chopping sideways and priced 84 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Kansas City wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents Thursday at $4.30 1/2, finding support near its contract lows after a rough sell-off in February. Tuesday's WASDE report certainly didn't give traders any reason to believe in higher wheat prices, but we do have the uncertainty of a new growing season ahead. Here in the U.S., May Chicago wheat was up 2 1/2 cents with more heavy rains expected over SRW wheat areas the next seven days. May Minneapolis wheat was up 3 cents as spring wheat planting is running into difficulty with another winter storm wreaking havoc across the northwestern U.S. Plains and flooding in eastern North Dakota. Early Thursday, wheat got more bearish news as last week's export sales and shipments totaled 10.0 mb and 21.6 mb respectively. If wheat is going to reach USDA's 945 mb export estimate by the end of May, we are going to have to see 31 mb of shipments each week, but that seems unlikely. With plenty of U.S. wheat available and early crop conditions looking mostly favorable, the trends in cash prices for all three wheats are down with prices probing for support. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.13 Wednesday, 13 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.34, also up from its lowest prices in a year.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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