DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December corn was down 1 cent. May soybeans closed down 1/4 cent and November soybeans were down 1/2 cent. May KC wheat closed up 1/4 cent, May Chicago wheat was down 2 1/2 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was up 1 1/2 cents. The June U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.362 at 96.640. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 120.50 points at 26,304.49. June gold is up $6.60 at $1,302.20, May silver is up $0.13 at $15.22 and May copper is up $0.0395 at $2.9340. May crude oil is up $1.23 at $64.31, May heating oil is up $0.0164, May RBOB is up $0.0172 and May natural gas is up $0.039.

Corn:

May corn ended down 2 1/2 cents at $3.60 Monday with warmer temperatures helping improve planting conditions for at least one more day before another winter storm is expected to move across the northwestern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday. The Midwest did see scattered showers over the weekend and more on Monday toward the southeastern Corn Belt. Barge traffic on the rivers remains difficult, but we are starting to see the lofty premiums in FOB prices at the Gulf come down to more normal levels in relation to interior prices around the country. Even so, corn export activity has been running lower than needed here in the second half of 2018-19 and there is a risk USDA could reduce the export estimate in Tuesday's WASDE report. Monday morning, USDA said 40.8 million bushels (mb) of corn were inspected for export last week, less than the 54.9 mb needed each week to reach USDA's export estimate. Dow Jones' pre-report survey expects USDA to raise the estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks from 1.835 billion to 2.013 billion bushels (bb) in Tuesday's report. Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report will take its first look at corn planting progress and the number is apt to be small as getting into fields has been difficult around much of the Midwest. For now, May corn futures continue to trade near their contract low, while cash prices are chopping sideways above $3.30. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.38 Friday, 25 cents below the May contract and back below its 100-day average. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.36 and other commodities are mixed to higher.

Soybeans:

May soybeans lost a quarter-cent Monday, ending at $8.98 3/4 in a fairly quiet day of trading ahead of Tuesday's WASDE report. According to Dow Jones' survey, analysts expect USDA to increase its estimate of U.S. ending soybean stocks from 900 mb to 913 mb. The small increase is helped by March 1 soybean stocks that were close to expectations and apparently means most analysts don't expect a reduction in the export estimate. Monday morning, USDA said 32.6 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, a little below the 36.3 mb needed each week to meet USDA's projection. It may be difficult for soybean inspections to stay in the 30s the next four months as exports from Brazil increase. Dow Jones' survey expects a slight reduction in USDA's 116.5 mmt (4.28 bb) crop estimate for Brazil, but other private estimates point to a modest increase. A slight increase in Argentina's 55.0 mmt (2.02 bb) estimate is reasonable as their weather has been favorable this season. Here in the U.S. Midwest, cold soils and wet conditions are ruling out early planting for most areas and it will be a few weeks before USDA's Crop Progress report looks at planting progress for soybeans. For now, trade negotiations continue between the U.S. and China, while both cash and futures soybean prices seem content to trade sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.14 Friday, chopping sideways and 85 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Kansas City wheat ended up a quarter-cent Monday at $4.31 1/2, another day of low volume trading near contract lows. Monday afternoon's winter wheat crop ratings from USDA are apt to stay high, near last week's 56% good-to-excellent mark. The next seven days, excess rain remains a concern in the southeastern Midwest for the SRW wheat crop. This week's winter storm will affect wheat north of Kansas, but is likely to miss most of the major production areas. Outside the U.S., the western Canadian Prairie is dry with little rain in this week's forecast, but the North China Plain is expecting beneficial showers this week, coming at a good time for the wheat crop. Earlier Monday, USDA said 19.8 mb of wheat were inspected for export last week, well below the 30.4 mb needed each week to reach USDA's export estimate. Tuesday's WASDE report will likely show a modest gain in USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks after March 1 wheat stocks came in a little higher than expected. The additional risk is USDA could reduce its estimate of wheat exports again, possibly putting ending wheat stocks near 1.1 bb. With plenty of U.S. wheat available and early conditions looking mostly favorable, the trends in cash HRW, SRW and HRS wheats all are down with prices probing for support. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.18 Friday, 14 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.43, also up from its lowest prices in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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