DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed down 17 1/2 cents per bushel and December corn was down 13 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed down 5 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 4 3/4 cents. May K.C. wheat closed down 8 3/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 6 3/4 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was down 5 1/4 cents. The June U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.076 at 96.840. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 160.25 points at 25,877.71. June gold is up $2.60 at $1,297.90, May silver is up $0.14 at $15.11 and May copper is up $0.0585 at $2.9310. May crude oil is up $0.90 at $60.20, May heating oil is up $0.0013, May RBOB is up $0.0202 and May natural gas is down $0.046.

For the week:

May corn closed down 21 3/4 cents and December 2019 corn was down 15 1/4 cents. May soybeans were down 19 1/2 cents while November 2019 soybeans were down 18 1/2 cents. May Kansas City wheat was down 15 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 8 1/4 cents, and May Minneapolis wheat was down 17 1/2 cents.

Corn:

May corn dropped 17 1/2 cents to $3.56 1/2 Friday after USDA estimated more plantings and corn stocks than expected. Friday's close was a new contract low for May corn and also marked a loss of 21 3/4 cents for the week. USDA said it expects farmers to plant 92.8 million acres (ma) of corn in 2019 -- more than expected and up 4% from a year ago in spite of flooding concerns across the U.S. USDA acknowledged the U.S. experienced its wettest winter in over 124 years and the three-crop planting total of 222.8 ma in Friday's report was the lowest since 2011. USDA also said March 1 corn stocks totaled 8.605 billion bushels (bb), more than expected. U.S. corn demand of 7.995 bb in the first half of 2018-19 was the third highest on record, but was likely slowed by high prices at the Gulf and the anticipation of larger crops from South America. Technically, Friday's action will turn the trend in cash corn prices back down, but there is plenty of uncertainty in this spring's planting estimates. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.47 Thursday, 27 cents below the May contract. In outside markets, other commodities are mostly higher and the Dow Jones Industrials is trading up 160 points.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed down 5 1/4 cents at $8.84 1/4 Friday and were down 19 1/2 cents on the week, while demand continues to be sluggish and traders wait for news on some kind of trade progress with China. Early Friday, USDA said China bought 30 mb (816,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans for 2018-19, a small fraction of rumors that get tossed around, but rarely confirmed. In Friday's reports, USDA said it expects 84.6 ma of soybean plantings in 2019, less than was expected and down 5% from a year ago as trade uncertainty with China pushes farmers toward corn. USDA also said there were 2.716 bb of U.S. soybeans on hand as of March 1, roughly as expected. U.S. soybean demand totaled 2.286 bb in the first half of 2018-19, the lowest in six years. Not surprising, March 1 soybean supplies were the most on record as U.S. soybeans continue to head toward record ending stocks in 2018-19. Friday's lower close turned the trend down in both, the May futures contract and for cash soybean prices. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.02 Thursday, a new three-month low and $0.87 below the May futures contract.

Wheat:

May K.C. wheat fell 8 3/4 cents to $4.30 Friday and was down 15 cents on the week. USDA estimated 45.8 ma of all wheat plantings in 2019, the lowest U.S. total in a century, but not enough to make traders think supplies are coming down anytime soon. Winter wheat acres were estimated at 31.5 ma, as expected. Spring wheat acres were estimated at 12.8 ma, lower than expected and down from 13.2 ma last year. In terms of March 1 wheat stocks, USDA reported 1.591 bb, slightly more than expected and another remainder of how sluggish export demand has been this season. For the first three quarters of 2018-19, U.S. wheat demand totaled 1.532 bb, its lowest by a slim margin in 14 years. USDA did say earlier Friday Iraq bought 5.5 mb (150,000 mt) of U.S. HRW wheat for 2018-19. The latest seven-day forecast is mostly dry for the southwestern U.S. Plains, but expects heavy rains in Missouri and moderate amounts on the SRW wheat crop in the eastern Midwest. For now, the trends for cash SRW and HRW wheat prices remain down, while the trend for cash HRS wheat stays sideways. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.24 Thursday, up from its lowest price in over a year and down 15 cents from the May futures contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.40 Thursday, also up from its lowest price in over a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(CZ)

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